New York oil prices fell by a total of 7.48% last week, and Brent oil prices fell by a total of 5.69%,New York crude oil futures prices fell below 80 US dollars.
On the one hand, this is because the U.S. dollar index has strengthened again due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, triggering follow-up interest rate hikes by global central banks; on the other hand, it is because of increasingly poor economic expectations, which has dealt a blow to market confidence.
There is often a strong correlation between the price of crude oil and the price of polyester raw materials. Is it the same this time?
Polyester yarn that cannot rise or fall
Led by crude oil, futures such as PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester staple fiber, etc. all plummeted, but polyester prices fluctuated much less.
On September 26, the polyester yarn quotations of some polyester factories remained stable, and the polyester yarn quotations of some polyester factories were lowered50-100 yuan/ tons, the price reduction is far less than PTA, Ethylene glycol.
Today’s polyester filament has fallen into a vicious cycle of neither rising nor falling.
The following is the trend chart of polyester raw material prices since 3 months this year.
It can be seen that before 8 months this year, the price of polyester yarn basically followed the price of raw materials, with a large increase or decrease, but it has entered the 8After eight months, no matter how upstream PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuate, the impact on polyester prices will be minimal. In the case of large fluctuations in PTA and ethylene glycol, 8 months later, polyester prices remained stable. It has become relatively stable, and the situation of sudden rise and fall has not occurred for a long time.
Co-extrusion of upstream and downstream
There was news two days ago that the PTA processing fee exceeded one thousand yuan. Although it was only a few days here and there, the processing fee later dropped back to seven or eight hundred yuan. But overall, at this stage, PTA’s profit situation is very good. This is mainly due to the shortage of upstream raw materials PX. Although PX has been promoting localization in the past two years, A large amount of imports are still needed. Now overseas energy costs have gone crazy and chemical production capacity has been greatly reduced. As a result, PTA cannot be productive even if it wants to.
PTAThe supply is tight, the price has been raised, and profits have gone up. However, it is difficult for polyester to catch up with the upstream price increases.
Today’s weaving companies are extremely sensitive to the price of raw materials. With the total number of orders declining sharply compared with previous years, cloth bosses seem to have transformed into actuaries, calculating carefully in every link in order to achieve success in the future. Survive longer in adverse situations. The longer you live, the greater the probability of eventually “eating chicken”.
If the upstream polyester filament dares to rise sharply now, the downstream weaving companies will dare to “open up” directly. Anyway, the more orders are made, the more losses will be incurred, so it is better to stop some of the machines to reduce losses.
As a result, the price of polyester yarn cannot rise, and profits have been greatly suppressed. Now PTA has reduced its price, and polyester yarn can only lose less. It would be good if it can be reduced slightly. Well, if you want to significantly reduce prices, wouldn’t it be difficult for your own profits?
Inventory risk intensifies
The time has come9At the end of the month, the weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to about 7%, but it has obviously reached Once the bottleneck is reached, there is little room for improvement in a short period of time.
The economic environment is not good, and the demand for terminals is only so small. There is no point in increasing the operating rate. The excess inventory produced will eventually become a useless waste that squeezes out working capital.
In this case, the potential to unlock polyester yarn from the demand side isIt is difficult, but the production capacity of the polyester factory is there, and the equipment that has been put into production in the past few years is about to be put into production. The oversupply situation of polyester filament will be difficult to solve in a short time, and there is a huge risk of accumulated inventory.
In order to absorb excess production capacity, some major polyester manufacturers have also begun to get involved in the weaving field, but this also means that the weaving field has become more curled to some extent.
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