The “Golden Nine” in 2022 has not brought much improvement to the market. Therefore, many companies have taken a long holiday during this year’s National Day. However, during the textile people’s holiday, there are new trends in the upstream! International crude oil broke the stable situation and began to rise. As of October 6, Brent crude oil, which had previously fallen below the 90 mark, soared to US$93.55/barrel, an increase of 7% from before the holiday!
At this time, the market has also entered the second stage of the peak season. Will the market conditions change? The editor believes that the market is still stabilizing at present.
The cost range of polyester yarn is not large
First of all, let’s take a look at these two pictures. First of all, the most intuitive thing that can be seen is that both pictures show the trend of “M”. Although the fluctuation range is quite different, the overall trend is still very similar, which shows that Polyester yarn prices sometimes show relatively strong performance when crude oil prices fluctuate, but overall they still follow the trend of crude oil price fluctuations. If we carefully compare the time points of the peaks and troughs of the two charts, we can see that the times are basically the same. Considering that it takes a certain amount of time for upstream prices to conduct downwards, these time differences are quite normal.
After comparing the two pictures for so long, the editor just wants to show that the increase in crude oil prices during this National Day is likely to drive up the price of polyester yarn after the holiday. However, it is worth noting that it can be seen that after the second half of this year , although the price of crude oil fluctuates very violently, it can be seen from the curve that although the price of polyester filament fluctuates, the overall price is still relatively stable.
Polyester yarn remains stable overall
Secondly, the editor compiled a comparison of polyester prices at the beginning and end of this year. Through the histogram, we can find a point. Except for July, the price at the end of other months will be slightly higher than or equal to the beginning. At this time, another problem will arise. , isn’t the end of the month a day for polyester factory sales? Why is the price not as low as expected? It can also be seen from this that the price of polyester yarn will increase slightly at the beginning or middle of each month, and the promotion at the end of the month will basically shave off this part of the price.
Therefore, the price of polyester yarn may increase by about 100 yuan after the holiday. However, since the market situation of downstream users has not yet returned to the peak season market in previous years, the purchasing strategy is still based on buying as needed, and few purchase in large quantities. Therefore, the impact of fluctuations in polyester prices on the mentality of weaving companies has gradually weakened.
Demand for polyester yarn is still insufficient
Finally, let’s talk about our weaving. The current situation in weaving can be said to be relatively sad this year. When the editor visited the market before the holiday, a textile boss said: “In previous years, during the Gold Nine and Silver Ten, we started from August 20 The preparation phase has begun, and orders have begun to come in. So far this year, it is a little better than at the beginning of September. In previous years, orders usually rush into September and last until the end of the year. It is expected to be difficult this year.”
In addition to the company’s statements, data also shows that the market situation has indeed encountered a bottleneck. According to the data monitoring of Silk City.com, the current weaving utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 69.3% before the holiday, unable to break through the 70% mark. The market is on the rise. The previous increase in the rate is also because the high temperature weather has passed, the high temperature holiday has ended, and the deadlock in weaving start-up rates means that the demand for polyester yarn has not improved significantly, so it is still difficult to increase the price of polyester yarn.
To sum up, although the market has entered the second stage of the peak season, the so-called Golden Nine and Silver Ten have ended with the sluggish peak season. If Silver Ten wants to exert its strength, unless there is a “boost” injection, otherwise the market will It will still be in this tepid state, so in the short term, polyester prices will still mainly fluctuate.
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