After the New Year’s Day holiday, polyester filament can be said to have had a “good start” in 2023. The price increased slightly for two consecutive days on January 3 and 4. Although the increase was very small, the weaving market began to end. The price is still rising despite the situation. What gives the polyester factory the courage?
Now it seems that the cost side is too strong, which gave the polyester factory the courage to increase the price of polyester yarn. PX and PTA have increased significantly, especially PTA, which has performed strongly in the context of strong expectations and the current contradiction between supply and demand. , PTA rose as high as 1.63% during the week, ranking first in the list of increases. In the short term, as demand weakened, PTA load was also reduced, so supply and demand did not deteriorate.
However, due to the sharp setback in crude oil overnight on January 3, WTI crude oil fell below US$80/barrel to US$76.93/barrel, down 0.40% on the day; Brent oil fell by US$3.81/barrel to US$82.1/barrel, which is expected to Although PTA’s own supply and demand are relatively healthy, it may still show a relatively tired trend before the holiday due to the original drag.
Therefore, although 2023 has had a “good start”, the editor’s view is still that before the holiday, there is not much room for price increases in polyester factories.
Polyester yarn has a single way to rise
The current round of polyester price increases (starting from December 2022) was indeed guaranteed by the recovery of the demand side in the early stage. However, after mid-to-late December, the weaving market fell again. By this time, the polyester increase path has returned to a single path. The cost side has risen, and the cash flow of polyester yarn has been compressed due to the rising cost of PTA. Therefore, even if the downstream demand is sluggish, the enthusiasm of polyester factories to increase prices is still high.
However, this single path of rising is always relatively short-lived. After the cost side began to maintain stability, the rising channel of polyester stopped abruptly and maintained stable operation. Now, as mentioned above, crude oil has suffered a heavy setback and PTA prices have risen. The channel will be blocked again. It can be deduced from this that the price of polyester yarn may not change much before the holiday. Even if there is a change, it will be downward.
The holiday time has been determined as the Spring Festival approaches
As New Year’s Day has passed, the Spring Festival holiday is not far away. Yesterday’s article also mentioned that notices of steam shutdowns have been issued to printing and dyeing factories. As almost the last link in the textile industry chain, the printing and dyeing factories are preparing to take a holiday, so the holidays upstream must also be in place. Not far away, a boss said: “The current holiday plan is January 11, which will basically coincide with the holiday of the printing and dyeing factories.”
For weaving companies, the loss of employees has begun to occur, the overall operating rate has gradually declined, and some factories have even gone on holiday. As a result, the delivery of orders received at the end of last year has been hindered, and some orders may not be delivered until after the year. , however, most of the factory orders have been delivered, and the inventory of gray fabrics has declined slightly. However, they are still cautious about the subsequent market. Therefore, most factories are not willing to produce gray fabrics and inventory, and will mostly choose to produce to order after the year.
As the New Year approaches, some polyester factories are also gradually implementing production reduction and maintenance work. The weaving market will also have holidays and production suspensions one after another, and demand will further decline. It is therefore expected that with both supply and demand reduced, polyester prices will remain stable in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, polyester stocks will further accumulate during the Spring Festival, so polyester prices may still have a downward trend after the year.
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