Watch carefully! According to central bank data, from January to November 2022, new resident deposits totaled 14.9 trillion yuan. If the amount of household deposits in December is added, the new resident deposits for the whole year will exceed 16 trillion yuan.
What is this concept? Between 2019 and 2021, the annual increase in deposits of my country’s residential sector will be around 10 trillion yuan, and going forward, it will generally be less than 5 trillion yuan. Savings that are significantly higher than the normal savings in previous years are usually called “excess savings.” In other words, the excess savings in 2022 will be as high as 6 trillion yuan!
And this 6 trillion yuan of excess savings naturally makes many people look forward to it – will it be transformed into the “excess consumption” that all parties are looking forward to in 2023? The editor thinks that expectations may not be too high.
As can be seen from the figure above, compared with previous years, the savings rate of urban residents and rural residents has declined, and rural areas have reached a historical low in the third quarter. Therefore, we can draw a conclusion that in fact, most Residents do not have excess savings and are even depleting their savings due to public health reasons. So where do these excess savings come from?
The true source of excess savings
Still in the picture just now, by comparing the deposit and loan data in the past five years, it is obvious that the ratio of deposits and loans in Wannian is basically not much different, but this year, the difference between deposits and loans is nearly 5 times. This means that increased savings mean that many residents no longer borrow money to buy houses or run businesses, but instead save their income.
Those who are able to borrow money to buy a house or run a business obviously do not represent the majority of residents, but a small group of people. This group has shrunk their investment plans in the face of falling housing prices and a deteriorating business environment, just like the textile industry. A boss in the market said: “If business is not good, we will borrow money when we have orders, so the financial pressure is not great.” And this is the true source of excess savings.
Residents’ willingness to consume is not high
Then it will be very obvious where this money will go in the future. When it comes to places to go, there are nothing more than three aspects: household consumption, real estate and financial investment. Since this money is saved from real estate and financial investment, it will probably return to this market in the future. Therefore, for the household consumption sector, it may still be difficult to recover next year. Yes, and last year I said that the consumption structure of residents has changed. People no longer buy clothes, which has led to a deterioration in demand for clothes. This has been transmitted to the textile market, making business particularly difficult in 2022. This situation may still remain the same in 2023. meet.
The best example is the tourism data for this year’s New Year’s Day. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, this year’s New Year’s Day, the number of tourists nationwide reached 52.7 million, reaching nearly 40% of the number in 2019. This number looks like It’s okay, but the tourism income of more than 50 million people is 26.5 billion yuan, which translates to an average of only 500 yuan per person on this trip. Traveling is okay, but spending money is not. Residents’ willingness to consume is still so low.
It is worth noting that residents’ willingness to consume is the engine that drives market vitality. If consumption does not keep up in time, no matter how good it is, it is just talk on paper. This is especially true for the textile market. If the purchasing intensity of terminal clothing has not improved. If there are signs, then the market situation next year may improve, but the upward space is limited. And if the direction of these 6 trillion yuan turns to “retaliatory consumption”, then the textile market next year will soar!
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