Starting from today (January 12th), the textile market has basically entered the Spring Festival holiday. The most obvious feeling is that there is no traffic jam on the way to work today. Therefore, although the opening rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang this week has not been calculated, it is basically It can be estimated to be around 15%, and it will basically end in some areas.
Well, the textile market has been on holiday, and the demand side for polyester filament is a periodic lack. Let us predict what the polyester market will be like after the start of the new year.
Downstream buying momentum is still insufficient
First of all, we have to admit that the destocking effect of polyester factories in early December is very obvious. Due to the placement of orders and optimism about the market next year, many weaving companies have the confidence to stock up. Therefore, unlike the previous polyester factories Compared with the inventory that has been stable for one and a half months, the current polyester inventory is basically maintained at about 20-25 days. Specifically, in terms of products, POY inventory is at 22-32 days, FDY inventory is at around 20-30 days, and DTY inventory is about 18-31 days.
Although the inventory is only more than 20 days old, polyester factory production and sales have not exceeded 100% since mid-December, and have not exceeded 100% for 20 days. Therefore, polyester inventory has averaged 100% since mid-December. The price rises by one day per week. Last year, the weaving boss did not stock up on goods, and it seems that he still has no plans to do so this year. From this aspect, it can be seen that although everyone is optimistic about next year’s market, they still maintain a cautious attitude.
What is missing is a year-end promotion
Although there is not enough motivation to buy, in the final analysis, the current price of polyester yarn is not very suitable to buy. Since the beginning of December, the price of polyester yarn has continued to rise, and there is no intention of falling in the later period. At best, it is maintaining stable operation, and there is no downward trend at all. In previous years, in order to achieve the purpose of destocking the warehouse, polyester factories often had a year-end sale, and then the price rose back at the beginning of the new year.
Now that polyester prices are at a relatively high point, weaving companies are inevitably somewhat resistant to the rising polyester prices. Therefore, for polyester factories, if they want to get rid of low production and sales, the most critical issue is price! As long as polyester factories are willing to make concessions on price, weaving companies will definitely increase their stocking of polyester filament. On the contrary, if polyester filament prices still want to remain strong, they will have to take these stocks into a phased loss of demand. The Spring Festival. Today (January 12), the price of polyester filament has softened, and polyester production and sales have soared to 250.3% in one day.
Textile market holiday crude oil prices rise
The textile market is on holiday, but bulk commodities are still in continuous production. The price of crude oil rose sharply yesterday, with Brent trading at 82.61 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.57 US dollars/barrel, or 3.21%. Although in this year’s dimension it looks 80 The price of USD/barrel has dropped a lot, but from an overall historical perspective, this price is still at a high level. In previous years, the price of crude oil generally fluctuated in the range of 60-70 US dollars/barrel, but this year the price of 80 US dollars/barrel is no longer considered high.
Therefore, for polyester factories, cost pressure still exists, and the possibility of rising crude oil still exists. Investment institutions represented by Goldman Sachs are betting that Asian economies will fully lift the new crown restrictions and stimulate demand. It is worth noting that while demand is rising, global oil supply is facing cuts. It also means that global oil supply will become tight in 2023. This also makes many market institutions optimistic about this year’s international oil prices.
Due to the reality of low inventory, most polyester factories are still maintaining stability and waiting, but some factories have room for negotiation. Therefore, in the short term, in this final charge, polyester yarn prices are still expected to be discounted, but in the After the start of the new year, there will be great expectations for a “good start” in the market.
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