Last week, the price of polyester yarn fell for three consecutive days. In the final analysis, this must be attributed to crude oil. The big brother of crude oil cannot support it, and everyone below will feel uncomfortable, but now there is only one week left before Jin San If you have more time, if the big brother can’t do it, is there any chance for the little brother to stand up for himself? The editor believes that as long as there is enough demand, anything is possible!
The price of polyester filament last year changed very regularly, which makes us wonder whether it will still follow a certain pattern this year? Let’s first talk about the current situation in polyester factories. The problem that polyester factories are facing now is high inventory and no demand. Of course, neither of these two buddies can blame the other. It is precisely because there is no demand and their own loads are still recovering that they have led to the current high inventory situation.
Therefore, I lose my capital to bid, and I can only follow the price changes of Big Brother. However, if we compare the crude oil price and polyester price trend chart before the epidemic, we will clearly find that there is actually a relationship between the two, but not much. . And we all know that 2018 was a peak period for the textile industry. The market situation that year can be described as the top of the mountain. After that year, we began to go downhill.
So now that the factors of the epidemic have become increasingly diluted and everything is back on track, with the arrival of Jinsan, perhaps the price of polyester yarn can break away from Big Brother’s air-conditioning and embark on its own path.
Polyester, weaving load double liter
The load of the polyester plant continues to rise. It has increased by nearly 20% in two weeks and is currently around 76.5%. At this time, someone has to ask, as the polyester load increases, the polyester inventory will definitely increase. Why is the price going up? Ah, but it should be noted that at the same time, the operating rate of weaving is also increasing. Currently, according to data monitoring from Silkdu.com, the operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is already around 63.5%, an increase of 16.4% from last week.
The increase in the weaving start-up rate also means that the consumption of polyester yarn will increase. And as mentioned above, the current time node is approaching Jin San, and the time for placing new summer orders will be around the end of the month or the beginning of next month. Therefore, weaving companies We are still relatively optimistic about the market, especially since raw materials have been at a low level in the past two days, and weaving companies are more willing to buy dips.
Phased replenishment season
It is currently the time for weaving companies to replenish their stocks in stages. The last statistics on the raw material inventory data of weaving companies showed that weaving companies stocked 20-40 days more raw materials before the year, and some companies also replenished their stocks after the year. So based on the current time point, weaving companies have now reached the point where they need to replenish supplies. After all, it is impossible to wait until all raw materials are consumed before replenishing the inventory.
The promotion some time ago catered to some companies that purchased in the middle of the month, but the sentiment of “buy up, not buy down” has always been there in the market. There is no end to the price drop, and only when the price rises can you know where the bottom is, and since February The production and sales of polyester have not been very satisfactory. If polyester factories want to stimulate consumption, raising prices may be a good way now. After all, “Golden Three” is still a good reason for price increase.
It is worth noting that today, February 20, under the influence of crude oil, PTA futures fell slightly, but polyester prices generally remained stable, so we must be alert to the possibility of a rebound in polyester prices at the end of February or early March.
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