Since mid-March, polyester filament yarn has experienced eight price increases, interspersed with one day of fine-tuning declines. What changes has such a long price increase cycle brought to the market?
After a two-day tour of production and sales, no one bought it
When the price increase came, our textile companies responded quickly. On the first day of the price increase, the textile companies started to purchase raw materials. Firstly, they replenished their own raw material inventory; secondly, they were afraid of replenishing the inventory later. High position, but this kind of operation is relatively risky. If the price of polyester filament falls as expected after the price increase, that is the classic old saying, buying the dip is half the price.
However, in response to this price increase, many textile bosses have a bullish mentality and appropriately replenish their inventory. Through a lot of research, we found that the mentality of the bosses is that it is okay to buy, but it is not feasible to stock up on large quantities, which also leads to The surge in polyester production and sales was only concentrated in the first and second wave of price increases. This purchasing model is because the current demand is still not very good, and the replenishment time is generally about 30 days.
The price is not much higher
Another reason for the low production and sales may be the rising collective resistance among textile companies caused by price increases. If prices keep rising, no one will be willing to increase their own costs. But how much has the price increased this time? Let’s take a look at this table, which corresponds to the beginning of March, the price after the first price increase in March and each subsequent price increase, as well as the highest point and lowest point in March.
From this table, we can easily see that the price increase is quite limited. Even if the cost of purchasing raw materials now is not much different from that in early March, the difference between the highest and lowest is 350 yuan/ton, and the average price rises within a few days. , that is, it rises by almost 50 yuan per day, and the increase from the beginning of the month has narrowed to 100 yuan/ton. However, quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes, and the constant price increases always make people feel uncomfortable. They obviously can buy raw materials at lower prices but miss out.
The price increase cannot bring benefits to polyester factories, so will the price of polyester filament fall? The editor’s opinion is that it is relatively difficult for polyester filament to fall if the current fundamentals remain unchanged. Among them, the biggest reason blocking the decline of polyester filament is the current cost end.
The current upstream cost side of polyester filament needs to be divided into two parts, that is, crude oil and PX and PTA need to be looked at separately.
In terms of crude oil, news of easing concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States and short-term oil supply disruptions continue to boost international oil prices. As of the date of publication, the price of Brent crude oil overnight has fallen below the 70 mark and has rebounded to around US$78.6/barrel, which has boosted the top support for polyester yarn.
In terms of PX and PTA, the two brothers have been rising day by day. The fluctuation of crude oil cannot affect the prices of PX and PTA too much for the time being. After all, the two brothers are now in the maintenance season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Even if crude oil falls, they can maintain relatively strong prices. Now that crude oil prices have risen, the support formed has given the prices of PX and PTA more confidence.
From this point of view, although textile companies may be relatively indifferent to the atmosphere of buying silk, and may even be resistant to continuous price increases, in the face of pressure from the cost side, the pace of polyester filament growth may be reduced considering the mood of the downstream, but it will not It has stopped moving forward, so in the short term, polyester filament is still relatively volatile.
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