Recently, the price of PTA has continued to rise, and PTA the main force of futures has started from 5 In the middle of the month, the 5200 point rose straight up, and it has risen to the current X point, 2It has risen nearly700 points in 2 months, and now there is still a stock that is about to break through 60006000 span> point posture.
PTASuch a rise has caught people off guard, and at the same time, textile companies are also a little panicked.
PTAWhy did the price increase?
Crude oil production cuts, costs rise
Recently, after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced the extension of oil production cuts, international oil prices have begun to rise. The cumulative increase in two weeks has exceeded 6%, and (prices) have reached the highest level in two and a half months. new highs. Crude oil, as a direct raw material for chemical products, has increased in price, which will naturally lead to a general increase in downstream raw materials.
Polyester promotion, good production and sales
6month14day, 6month26 Day,JulymonthJuly, less than a month later, the polyester factory conducted There are three rounds of promotions, and the average production and sales of polyester in these three days have reached 386.5%, 194.7%, respectively. 197.9%, the destocking effect is very good, giving PTA the confidence to increase prices.
Production cuts are coming, supply and demand are tight
Every summer is the season for PTA to reduce production, and this year is no exception. RecentlyFuhaichuang has been overhauled 20days as planned.Sanfang Lane has been overhauled. Hainan Yisheng and Yisheng New Materials have reduced their burdens. At this stage, PTAThe device load dropped to around 74%, but the polyester factory load remained at 93% Left and right, overall supply and demand are tight.
In addition to the above-mentioned fundamental factors, capital is also behind the surge in PTA prices.
Polyester prices have increased, but fewer people are buying them.
Driven by PTA, the price of polyester yarn has risen as expected. On Monday, polyester filament quotations from various polyester factories generally rose by 100- 200yuan/ tons. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the price of polyester yarn also increased slightly.
The price increase of polyester yarn this time is not large, but it is very sustainable. It will increase by 100 today and 50 tomorrow. Relative to PTA it is smaller.
But it’s not that polyester factories don’t want to increase prices. It’s because after price increases, downstream companies simply can’t accept them.
Normally, if the price of polyester yarn continues to rise, weaving companies are likely to purchase large amounts of yarn and increase inventory in order to save money.
Now the price of polyester yarn has been rising, and there are expectations of price increases to a certain extent, but the downstream acceptance is relatively limited.
Is it because the company has no demand? No, although the market has reached the off-season, the operating rate of weaving enterprises can still be maintained at around 70%, which is not high, but not particularly low either. In the previous rounds of promotions, weaving companies were also very active in replenishing goods. If the market were to be like last year, promotions would be normalized and it would be difficult for production and sales to exceed 100.
In the final analysis, the profits of textile companies are too low. The global economy has declined this year, foreign trade demand has dropped significantly, and the number of orders is overall decreasing. However, the number of looms in the central and western regions is increasing, and the oversupply situation is very obvious.
At this time, more people buy gray fabrics from some fabric spot supermarkets. Now the fabric spot supermarkets are becoming more and more popular. Not only the categories must be complete, but also the colors must be complete. Therefore, the demand for gray fabrics is also large. At this stage, they have become A major customer of the weaving factory.
In the case of imbalance between supply and demand, the bargaining power of weaving enterprises is very low. In the past, the profit from gray cloth production may have been 5%, but now it may be only 1%- 2%. There’s no other way. If it’s too expensive, people will buy from other companies. With such an extreme price, it may not be able to retain customers. After all, there are a lot of people selling goods at a loss to clear inventory. As for the price increase? That is absolutely impossible.
Therefore, once the price of polyester yarn rises to a certain level, the profit and loss balance of weaving enterprises will be broken, which will greatly reduce the cost of weaving.Not to mention that every summer, factories will almost always affect production due to weather, electricity consumption and other factors.
If the price of polyester continues to rise like this, the downstream may begin to “go bad”…
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