Recently, crude oil has been increasingly affected by production cuts, which has also led to a collective increase in prices in the polyester industry chain. The price of polyester yarn has increased slightly every day since July.
The price increase of polyester yarn is inevitable
At present, the main factor affecting the price of polyester yarn is the cost. The cost side has experienced an overall rise, and crude oil has surged, rising nearly 10% in a week. The price of Brent crude oil is now US$80.11 per barrel.
The impact of production cuts by crude oil-producing countries has not been apparent before, and it is only now that it has affected the market. Driven by crude oil, PTA, which has a supply preference, is also very enthusiastic about price increases. The current internal quotation is at 5,976 yuan/ton, half of the way through the 6,000 yuan/ton mark.
Under the continuous price increase on the cost side, the price increase of polyester yarn can only be said to be a last resort. In the case of rising prices, the profit of polyester yarn is still declining rapidly. According to the data monitoring of Silkdu.com, the three conventional polyester yarns The profits are: 150D FDY 5 yuan/ton, 150D POY -195 yuan/ton, 150D DTY 370 yuan/ton.
It is more intuitive to look at the profit trend chart. We do not look at it except DTY. The cost of this raw material is POY, so it cannot be included. The profits of the other two specifications have dropped off a cliff.
The increase in polyester yarn has little impact on current production
At present, polyester factories have raised polyester yarn prices in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton, and there is no concentration among various factories, except for a few manufacturers who are particularly tough. The prices have been raised piecemeal like this for a long time. For ten days.
Through these increases, the overall price of polyester has increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with before. During this process, many weaving companies could not help but “buy up”. The production and sales of polyester have increased significantly. In the past two weeks, The average production and sales in recent years have been around 70%.
Such stable production and sales data have never appeared even in the peak season. Although it is now the off-season, through research, we found that many manufacturers still have 100% operating rate. And although weaving companies are “buying up”, the basic purchasing frequency has not changed, and it still maintains a rhythm of about 15 days.
Regarding the increase in raw material prices, the person in charge of a weaving company said: “It will not have a big impact on our current production or sales. What is actually produced on the machine now is the silk we bought before, so the price of gray fabrics will not change much.”
What I have said so much is actually to express one idea. With profits so squeezed, the price increase wave for polyester factories has not actually come, and is still in the trial stage.
Can the slow rise in polyester yarns bring up the price of gray fabrics?
First of all, as mentioned above, the raw materials used in the gray fabrics being produced now were purchased previously, and the price of the order has been agreed upon, so it is difficult for the price to rise.
However, the price increase of the raw materials purchased now is transmitted to the price of gray fabrics, which is delayed. Assuming that the raw materials for a piece of cloth were purchased at a time of high prices, then if the raw material price of the piece of cloth dropped during the weaving period.
When production ends, even though everyone knows that the price of raw materials was high before, the cost support has been lost, and it will be more difficult for prices to rise.
Secondly, gray fabrics are currently facing the problem of overcapacity, and peer bidding is serious. In this era of involution, price increases are even more difficult.
Therefore, even if the price of raw materials increases, it will not drive up the price of gray fabrics. This part of the profit can only be lost. One weaving company owner said: “I am like a sandwich, sandwiched in the middle. The left and right are not people.”
To sum up, the rise in polyester yarn in July requires more attention to the cost-end trend. Since the beginning of this year, polyester factory inventories have been within an affordable range due to regular purchases by weaving companies. In the short term, polyester yarn prices will remain cautious. rising trend.
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