On September 12, domestic polyester production and sales ushered in a big explosion, and the average production and sales rate of polyester filament was as high as338.8% , the production and sales of some polyester manufacturers are even as high as 500%, and weaving companies have purchased a lot.
Raw materials keep rising
The most direct reason for this round of polyester production and sales is the increase in raw material prices.
On Tuesday (9month12), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA span>) issued the latest report, predicting that international crude oil supply will be tight in the future. Affected by this, the price of crude oil rose 2% during the session, and the price of Brent oil exceeded 92USD /barrels hit a new high in10 months.
Affected by this, PX rose to close to the highest point of the year, and PTA and ethylene glycol also experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of polyester filament yarn also increased by 50-100yuan/ton.
On September 9 on March 13, this round of gains continued.
More importantly, the rise in crude oil prices does not appear to be short-term. In 2023, due to the impact of the global economic recession, demand has shrunk, and the overall demand for crude oil has shown a shrinking trend. However, once crude oil shows a weak trend, oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will Production cuts began. As the world’s largest oil producer at this stage, the United States is deeply troubled by inflation, but national inflation has nothing to do with oil production capital. If crude oil prices rise, they will only “make a fortune silently.”
Therefore, the price of crude oil is considered to be rising, which has little to do with demand. What is even more frightening is that as long as oil-producing countries do not relent and continue to increase production reduction measures, this high price will continue.
In addition to crude oil, there are also rumors on the Internet that the future production reduction of polyester plants will exceed expectations. The exact reduction is still uncertain, but the rumor was released first. This kind of production reduction is expected to also increase polyester yarn demand. Upward momentum.
Affected by the above factors, 7The price of polyester filament has been in an upward range since July, and the increase continues.
“Buy up, not down” is back
Different from the past, the biggest difference in this round of raw material price increases is that in addition to upstream promotion, there is also real demand to support it.
Since late August, weaving companies that have experienced a long period of silence have gradually begun to replenish their stocks, and in 8month21Day, 8month30Day, 9On May5, production and sales exceeded 100.
During the off-peak seasons of July and August, textile companies generally adopt the strategy of selling goods at low prices and keeping inventory down. , so although profits are very limited, the inventory situation of textile companies is still optimistic, the cash flow in hand is relatively healthy, and there is room for maneuver. Therefore, when textile workers judge that raw materials may continue to rise in the future, they have the confidence and strength to replenish their stocks.
The time has arrived in September. Even if the situation is worse this year, at least during this period, the order situation will always pick up. There is an order, and there is an expectation of rising prices for the raw materials, so it is normal to buy a little.
In other words, in the months of 9 and 10, textile people are most familiar with the principle of “buy up, not buy down” The rules are established.
The Dilemma of Weaving Enterprises
For downstream weaving companies, rising raw material prices can be regarded as a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, after the price increase of raw materials, the prices of gray fabrics and fabrics were finally able to rise with the support of demand. According to the editor’s understanding, the prices of some commonly used fabrics for autumn and winter clothing and some popular conventional products are indeed high.It’s high.
On the other hand, the more popular conventional varieties are, the more people are stocking them in advance, and the more companies are producing them. The demand may be less than the same period in previous years, but the supply has increased far, so textile companies can only slightly The profit situation has not been reversed despite the price increase.
In addition, under the unsatisfactory global economic environment, it is uncertain how long market demand can last and whether the peak season will end early. Once the peak season is over, the most important support for polyester price increases will be gone.
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