Before you know it, more than half of the “Golden Nine” has passed, and some textile bosses are starting to get “impatient”!
The editor can’t help but wonder. From September to now, the monitoring data are obviously developing for the better. For example, the weaving startup has increased, the inventory of gray fabrics has dropped, and orders have really come… Why do some textile bosses become anxious? Woolen cloth?
Raw materials are cheated, but fabric prices are rising but it is difficult to make progress
On Monday, global oil price benchmark Brent crude oil approached the US$95 mark, and WTI crude oil rose to US$91.03 per barrel, both achieving three consecutive weeks of gains and approaching their highest point in 10 months. Brent crude oil has risen 11% in the past three weeks. Relevant people believe that the oil market will become increasingly tense in the second half of 2023, and it seems to be only a matter of time before it exceeds $100/barrel.
Against this background, the polyester industry chain is also booming across the board. Taking polyester filament as an example, the domestic polyester filament market has continued to rebound since September. As of September 19, the average prices of mainstream polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are as follows: polyester FDY150D is quoted at 8,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; polyester POY150D is quoted at 8,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 475 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; polyester DTY150D is quoted at 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.
Seeing the rising prices of raw materials, guided by the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, downstream weaving companies are looking for opportunities to replenish supplies. On September 12, domestic polyester production and sales ushered in a big explosion. The average production and sales rate of polyester filament was as high as 338.8%, and the production and sales rate of some polyester manufacturers even reached 500%.
A weaving company revealed that although the price of raw materials has been rising, our fabric quotations have not been adjusted accordingly. They are all regular orders from some old customers, and the sales are very average. If the price increases, it will be even harder to sell.
It is understood that this situation is not an isolated case. After the textile market fell into “internal volume and external pressure”, fabric prices became increasingly stable, and the impact of raw material fluctuations was gradually weakened.
Exports are not optimistic, and the freight index decline expands
Compared with the boom on the cost side, foreign trade exports look much “bleak”!
On September 14, a Drewry report showed that the Global Comprehensive Container Freight Index (WCI) has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the decline has expanded again. Last week, it fell 7.1% from the previous week to US$1,561.3/FEU. Among them, the freight rates for many routes exported from Shanghai to Rotterdam, Genoa, New York, etc. have fallen by double digits in a single week.
Of course, while freight rates have fallen, the number of suspended sailings has also increased significantly. Two weeks ago, Drewry announced that the highest number of canceled sailings by shipping companies was about 45. Now, the number of canceled sailings has doubled or tripled.
This phenomenon is extremely abnormal during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods. If the shipping data is not positive and intuitive enough, let’s take a look at the textile and clothing export data.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, textile and clothing exports in August were US$27.86 billion, down 10.2%, and up 2.8% month-on-month. Among them, textile exports were US$11.69 billion, down 6.3%, up 4.8% month-on-month. Clothing exports were US$16.17 billion, down 12.7%. A month-on-month increase of 1.3%.
A textile foreign trade company said helplessly, “Although the textile market seems to be very hot now, this excitement belongs to domestic orders, and foreign trade orders are still mediocre.”
Market research shows that since the beginning of this year, companies focusing on foreign trade have been having a really difficult time. Under the combined influence of weak consumption in the US and European markets, procurement diversion, Sino-US friction and other factors, the shortage of foreign trade orders has long been a certainty.
Taken together, under heavy pressure, there may still be a long way to go before foreign trade orders pick up. However, this does not mean that there is no hope. From the feedback from enterprises, we found that the foreign trade market in September has shown signs of improvement compared with August, and some enterprises believe that the textile market may not reach the level of explosion, but the market in October should usher in a key change.
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