Starting from 2020, the global textile market has entered an unprecedented special situation. Chinese textile people seem to have entered a state of “suffering”, but once they enter, they seem to be out of control. not coming.
The worst times are also the best times
Looking back on the past few years, there is always an expectation in the market. In half a year, pessimistic textile people also predict that the textile market will usher in an inflection point in the next year, and “retaliatory orders” will slowly come. But the fact is that the market situation is getting worse year by year. The current market situation every year is the worst in the past, but it will be the best in the next few years.
In 20 and 21, because Europe and the United States continued to issue bonds and print money, people’s actual consumption capacity increased instead of falling. And because of my country’s strong policies, textile exports grew rapidly. However, this kind of bond issuance and money printing is obviously unsustainable. What will follow will be great inflation in 2023. European and American countries will continue to raise interest rates, the economy will be depressed, and European and American people’s consumption will Capacity has been significantly reduced.
And this consumption shrinkage caused by political and economic structural problems is far from over. Seeing that the global economy is getting worse and worse, European and American governments have shown one magical formalism plot after another because of economic problems. Everything seems to be waiting for a fuse to bring this series of contradictions to a total explosion. In this Before the general outbreak arrives, it is difficult for the turning point of the market to come.
Major changes unseen in a century
The world is now undergoing major changes that have not been seen in a century. In the past, developed countries in Europe and the United States had strong consumption power because their output per unit of labor time was several times that of China. In the past, 300 million pieces of clothing were exchanged for a Boeing airplane. Even if you were washing dishes in developed countries, the money you could earn was beyond your reach in China. Therefore, it is this kind of income support that enables the purchasing power of ordinary people to reach an extremely strong level.
But it is not easy to maintain such an income gap. With China’s breakthroughs in the high-tech field, this obviously unreasonable income gap will inevitably be reversed. However, this income gap is unique to developed countries. The foundation of one’s life is the source of high welfare. This change represents a shift in purchasing power and is part of a major change that has not happened in a century.
Decoupling? difficult
In order to resist this change, there has always been a voice of decoupling from China, wanting to replace China with the manufacturing industry of Southeast Asian countries. It is undeniable that the textile industry in Southeast Asia has developed very rapidly in the past two years. Many local textile companies have also invested there, and many low-tech, labor-intensive industries have also transferred very quickly.
But at the same time, many products that require a certain threshold are still produced in China to have the highest cost performance. This is not only due to years of technology accumulation, but more importantly, it has continued for more than ten years since 08 The gap caused by the huge investment in infrastructure has enabled China to have more stable electricity, more convenient transportation, higher-speed networks, and better supporting facilities… and it is precisely because of the accumulation of all this that China’s textile industry can Playing the game of “fast fashion” can reduce inventory to an extremely low level, and at the same time allow consumers to buy high-quality, fashionable products at extremely low prices, and the company can still make profits.
This trend has also spread to the United States. Now the most popular clothing consumer goods in the United States, Xiyin and temu (American spelling Duoduo), but this kind of fast-response, cost-effective and extremely cost-effective clothing can still only be produced by China before the infrastructure in Southeast Asia is developed. Therefore, no matter how many barriers the West has set up due to various reasons, as long as re-export trade exists, it will be difficult to achieve substantial decoupling.
As the income of residents at home and abroad is gradually leveled, the most important factor in determining the level of purchasing power has become population. The total population of North America, Europe, Japan and South Korea is almost the same as China. Therefore, domestic trade must be a major trend in the future. Although at this stage, due to various factors such as involution and foreign trade recession, the market profits are very low, but overall, the future growth potential of domestic trade may be Greater than the possibility of consumption recovery in European and American countries.
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