Since October, big international news has come one after another. The editor did not do much during the National Day holiday but just ate melon.
Along with economic globalization, international political economy has affected the whole body. The chain reactions caused by so many big news will more or less affect the business of textile enterprises.
Without further ado, let’s continue eating.
10%! Fall first to respect
The first big deal in October was the removal of Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy, and the reason for his removal was the passage of a 45-day interim budget. The bill helped the U.S. government “extend its life” for 45 days.
Some friends may ask, what does this have to do with textile companies?
The relationship is actually not small. The raw material for textile and chemical fiber is petroleum, so the cost of raw materials is closely related to international oil prices. As we all know, during the National Day, international oil prices plummeted by nearly 10%. The reason for the sharp drop in oil prices was largely due to the rise of the U.S. dollar index. The rise of the U.S. dollar index coincided with the passage of 45The interim budget bill is inseparable. And not only is crude oil falling, gold, which is in a similar ecological niche as crude oil, has also fallen by nearly 10% in a week.
This is not just because crude oil fell. As soon as the market opened after the National Day, PTA futures plummeted256 points, and the internal price also fell 245yuan/ tons, the price of polyester filament also continued3It has fallen for several days, with a cumulative drop of 400-500yuan/tons.
4%! Has it risen again?
However, oil prices fell as quickly as they rose. Not long after the United States had eaten its melon, a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict began again. When the editor was a child, I often heard the term Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the news. After two days of intensive eating, I also roughly understood the causes and consequences behind this.
Although neither Palestine nor Israel produces oil, this does not affect their unparalleled impact on international oil prices. Several oil-producing countries in the Middle East, as members of the Arab civilization, may become involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and expand it into a Middle East war. Then international oil prices will soar, as has happened many times in history. No matter which country wants to be the “big brother” in the Arab cultural circle, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is also a point that cannot be avoided.
So the conflict here has just started, and everyone is panicking. The reality in the past two years has become more and more magical. It seems that another Middle East war is not impossible. Once several oil-producing countries in the Arab world enter the war, the international oil price will be very high. It’s hard to predict.
For textile companies, no matter how the prices of raw materials increase, it is difficult for the prices of gray cloth and fabrics to rise. At this time, the last thing they want to hear is a sharp increase in the price of raw materials.
An increasingly magical world economy
Since 2020, textile companies have generally stated that the market situation is getting worse year by year, especially foreign trade. The background of this phenomenon is that the world economic environment is getting worse and worse, and the purchasing power of overseas markets is still poor at the beginning. It can be supported by additional currency issuance (printing money), but after printing money to a certain extent, the currency credit will be gone if it is printed any more, and it will also lead to inflation, so interest rates will start to be raised. Once interest rates are raised, the economy will get worse.
If we want foreign trade to be reversed, we must first solve the problems of overseas economies. However, now the overseas economy is only getting worse, but there is no improvement trend at all.
According to a report by the US Fox News Network on October 5, more and more data indicate that a game may exceed 1929To1933The economic collapse of the Great Depression may be imminent in2024 New Year is coming to the United States, the White House and Congress.
Compared with the increasingly shrinking markets in European and American countries, following my country’s One Belt and One Road strategy and exploring markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Russia, as well as the growing domestic market in the central and western regions, may be cost-effective in the future. Higher options.
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