The new year is approaching. According to the rules of previous years, textile companies will stock up on raw materials at this time to prepare for the market in the second year. However, in recent years, due to public health reasons, global consumption downgrade and other issues, textile bosses have had a hard time and dare not Stock up on raw materials.
However, today, as various impacts gradually weaken, is this year suitable for stocking up on raw materials? When is the right time?
To answer this question, let’s first look at the recent trend of polyester yarn and some expectations for the future.
Cost side is weak
Some time ago, the price of polyester yarn seemed to be out of touch with the cost end, but this situation has been reversed recently. After entering December, due to the weak crude oil and PTA ends, and weak support from the cost end, the polyester yarn market also showed a weak trend. As for the market situation, most factories have stable quotations, while some mainstream manufacturers have begun to tentatively lower polyester prices. Especially today (December 6), most factories in Jiangsu have adjusted their polyester prices.
Insufficient demand side
On the other hand, the demand in the textile market does not have enough support. Although down jacket fabrics have improved due to the cold air some time ago, in fact the recovery of the market is very limited. It is just a carnival of a small number of people, and due to this market situation It involves market orders, which consume more of the existing inventory. The impact on polyester yarn is not that obvious, and the wait-and-see mood of weaving companies has not been broken up.
In the later period, as there is no obvious positive situation on the cost side and the demand side, polyester prices will still be dominated by profit-making shipments in the short term. However, unless you just need to purchase goods at a discounted price during this period, it is obviously not worth “hoarding” yet.
It rose before it fell.
An article has also analyzed before. In November, the reason for the disconnection between polyester and cost-end prices. To briefly recap, if you want to make some profit margins, you can only increase PTA while it is falling, so that you can slightly repair the polyester. The ester factory’s own profits. After all, we have been losing money for a whole month since the end of October. Everyone has to think of ways to make money, and raising prices is the most direct way.
Therefore, the current price drop is actually just a drop from the increase in November. The desperate increase in costs in November has caused a significant increase in the profits of polyester factories. From the data point of view, by the end of November, polyester The factory’s profits have already turned a profit. Taking the 150D specification as an example, the current profits of polyester yarn are: FDY is 154 yuan/ton, POY is 29 yuan/ton, and DTY is 175 yuan/ton.
So now polyester factories have enough profit margins to sell goods at a profit, so textile bosses can be a “wait and wait” party and fight to the end if the price drops!
It is still necessary to stock up on raw materials
It is still necessary to stock up on raw materials at the end of the year. It can be seen that although polyester production capacity is still expanding this year, the growth rate has obviously slowed down, and many projects have been stopped midway, coupled with the elimination of old production capacity, so in terms of supply Polyester factories may have support next year. If the original situation of oversupply is reversed, polyester factories will have confidence again.
On the other hand, the profits of polyester factories have been hovering around the profit and loss line in recent years. Otherwise, there would be no need to engage in such operations that are out of touch with the cost side. The profit margin is small, so it is natural to think about whether the price can really be increased, instead of like The current price increase is for better profit sharing, and the reduction in supply is definitely the best opportunity.
In short, the raw materials stockpiled one year ago will be used in the second year anyway. In recent years, the pattern of “good starts” for polyester factories has also continued to occur, and it does not hurt to stock up appropriately.
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