The cotton market war is about to break out!
2016In 2016, the rise and fall of the cotton market affected the nerves of every fabric person. Textile companies and traders are competing to buy reserve cotton; futures and spot cotton prices have risen in tandem, and the changes in cotton prices still make the participants’ hearts beat. 2017At the beginning of the new year, the price increase of various fabric raw materials indicates that the fabric market this year will not be the same. It will be calm, and the start-up time will be earlier than in previous years, which also indicates that this year’s fabric industry may usher in a turning point and enter a new round of upward channel. According to the survey, the production and sales situation of cotton textile mills in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been relatively smooth since the Spring Festival,OEThe transaction of yarn, ring-spun carded yarn, and high-count combed yarn can be described as “all-round blooming”, and the inventory of cotton and other raw materials and finished product inventory of yarn mills has achieved a “double decrease”, entering3The willingness to replenish stocks quickly rebounded in the first and middle of the month, especially some small and medium-sized spinning and weaving companies purchasing real estate cotton and participating in the rotation of state reserve cotton The enthusiasm for bidding is high.
Recently, a new article “Cotton merchant giants have spoken out again, cotton prices are expected to rise in the next three years” has caused concerns about future cotton prices. In the report, Louis Dreyfus President Joe Nicol West Asia said: The cotton industry is recovering, and cotton prices will exceed 80 cents in the next two years. Nicosia believes that China’s current stockpiling is causing China’s cotton stocks to drop to a level that requires large amounts of imports. Cotton prices have reached a turning point and will continue to progress in the future, further pushing up cotton prices, but the market is quickly entering a bull market.
Domestic cotton price of 20,000 yuan/ton may appear in September
The sharp rise in cotton futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on March 6 has become a hot topic in futures investment circles recently. Data show that as of the close of the 6th, the main CF1705 contract of Zheng Cotton Futures rose 3.43% to close at 16,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86,000 lots and an inflow of approximately 700 million yuan. Looking back at the market situation in 2016, from the beginning of 2016 to July, cotton futures rose from 10,560 yuan/ton to around 16,910 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 60%; after that, they entered a wide range of fluctuations, and a new round of cotton price increases began in 2016 On December 27, 2018, the cumulative increase has reached 11.5%, and on March 6, it broke through the upper edge of the wide range of fluctuations since July last year, reaching 16,430 yuan/ton. March 6 was the first day of this year’s reserve cotton rotation. Zheng cotton’s price rose in response, triggering speculation that the reserve cotton was rising. For a while, cotton prices became a hot spot in the market. Looking at the trend of cotton prices from a futures perspective, some analysts believe that at present, destocking, funds and policies constitute the main driving force of the cotton market. The entire cotton market is forming a rising force, and the rhythm of cotton price fluctuations will become faster and faster. It is estimated that the price may reach 17,500 yuan/ton before the end of May. There is the potential to switch to a unilateral increase in September. The high point of cotton price this year may reach 20,000 yuan/ton!
The cotton textile industry has experienced a “spring thunder”
In early March, the market transaction prices of domestic mid-range C32 and JC40S cotton yarns were stable at 23,300-23,500 yuan/ton (high-end yarns reached 23,800-24,000 yuan/ton), 27,300-27,500 yuan/ton tons (high-end quotations exceed 28,000 yuan/ton), respectively increased by 300-500 yuan/ton and 600-800 yuan/ton compared with early February. The increase is basically consistent with the increase in Xinjiang cotton spot prices. With the sales of cotton reserves starting on March 6, judging from the current cotton distribution of domestic textile enterprises, carded yarns of 40S and below do not require “double 28/double 29” high-quality lint, 3128/3127 ( Horse value below 5.0, breaking strength 26.5CN and above) is enough. In order to improve the color grade and strength, most companies use state-reserved cotton with a certain proportion of Xinjiang cotton 3128/3127 or real estate cotton 3128/3129 to meet order requirements (matching The proportion is determined by the order price and quality indicators). As the price of external yarns has risen again, the “inversion” of domestic and external cotton yarn prices has intensified again, and the competitive advantages of Chinese cotton yarns and natural cotton cloths (Aiji, net worth, information) have quickly recovered. According to cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Ningbo, Guangzhou and other places, affected by the main force of ICE futures continuing to consolidate in the range of 77-80 cents/pound and the domestic S-6 ex-factory price in India has been above 84 cents/pound, Coupled with the increase in workers’ wages and energy prices in Vietnam, India, Pakistan and other countries, the “futures yarn” price of Vietnamese yarn mills in April/May/June has recently increased by more than 5 cents/kg, and the FOB, CNF and CIF quotations are also about to rise. Judging from the survey, the price of C32S Indian yarn after customs clearance on March 9 and 10 was 1,200-1,500 yuan/ton higher than that of domestic yarn (April shipping date). Therefore, there were almost no inquiries and transactions for “futures yarn”. Domestic weaving factories , the focus of middlemen has turned 180 degrees.
Coping strategies of textile enterprises under the current situation
Faced with the hot reserve cotton auction, fabric companies are currently quite entangled. They should participate, but they are afraid of a fall in cotton prices in the future, so they should not participate, and they are worried about a sudden increase in the future. So under the current circumstances, and How to deal with it? 1. In the short term, real estate cotton can be purchased and transferred to the mainland for the transition of 2016/17 Xinjiang cotton. The quality and spinnability of hand-picked cotton 3128/2128 (not “double 28”, with a breaking strength of 27 and above) are not Worse than reserve cotton, and the price is particularly suitable. 2. Enterprise alliances can be adopted to participate in the sale of reserve cotton. Cooperate with local fabric companies, jointly bid according to the cotton consumption and quality requirements of each company, and distribute the situation after the auction is completed, to resolve the dilemma of insufficient liquidity of the company, which is unable to obtain the goods. 3. Buy in Zheng cotton and match the spot price immediately when the listed price falls and wait for delivery. On March 8, the low of the CF1705 contract fell to 15,680 yuan/ton, while MA1705 was as low as 15,310 yuan/ton. The disk price of Zheng cotton was significantly lower than the average transaction price of reserve cotton (discounted to the standard grade); even compared with March The average transaction prices of reserve cotton on the 6th and 7th were 15,476 yuan/ton and 15,332 yuan/ton, which were also competitive.
In short, even if cotton prices are to rise in the future, it will not happen overnight. There will definitely be a process of ups and downs during the period. What fabric companies must grasp is to stay rational during the skyrocketing, collect payment immediately, and ensure Liquidity funds, and when cotton prices fall, it is necessary to immediately take action and snap up cotton of the appropriate grade for the enterprise to prepare for production needs.
AAASDFWFWFWE
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: Some of the texts, pictures, audios, and videos of some articles published on this site are from the Internet and do not represent the views of this site. The copyrights belong to the original authors. If you find that the information reproduced on this website infringes upon your rights, please contact us and we will change or delete it as soon as possible.
AA
