Will the probability of downstream textile companies actively bidding for cotton reserves increase significantly this year?
2016The annual domestic cotton sales volume is a topic of concern, which is not only helpful for inferring future cotton price trends. It is of great significance, and it is also particularly important to infer whether downstream textile enterprises are active in purchasing when the cotton reserves are released. So far, what is the domestic cotton sales volume?
According to statistics from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, there is not much new cotton left in the hands of cotton farmers in 2016. Only mainland cotton farmers still have a small amount of cotton in stock, and the rest have been sold to cotton companies for sorting. According to a survey of 80 large and medium-sized cotton finishing companies, as of February 3, the national lint finishing rate was 95.9%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points, of which Xinjiang’s finishing rate was 98.4%. Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 5.117 million tons (predicted by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in January 2017), as of February 3, a total of 4.677 million tons of lint cotton had been sorted nationwide, an increase of 48,000 tons year-on-year, of which 3.984 million tons of lint were sorted in Xinjiang; A total of 2.896 million tons of lint cotton were sold, an increase of 458,000 tons year-on-year, of which 2.405 million tons of lint cotton were sold in Xinjiang.
It can be seen that in 2016, domestic lint cotton sales accounted for 56.6%, of which Xinjiang sales volume was 2.405 million tons, accounting for 60.4% (calculated based on Xinjiang’s 3.984 million tons), and mainland sales volume It was 491,000 tons, and the sales ratio reached 70.9% (calculated based on the mainland’s processing volume of 694,000 tons).
The unsold volume of new cotton in 2016 was 2.221 million tons (total domestic cotton production minus cumulative sales). It is obvious that in the remaining 7 months of 2016, more than 2 million tons of goods Cotton cannot meet the needs of downstream textile companies. Based on the average monthly domestic cotton consumption of 700,000 tons, at least 4.9 million tons will be needed in seven months. If the amount of cotton reserves rotated out is added, the demand can be met. In addition, regardless of the production needs of enterprises or the price, reserve cotton is a very cost-effective product (bag inspection will still be required in 2017). Judging from the bidding and usage of enterprises last year, it is estimated that the enthusiasm for bidding this year will still be high.
AAAJH. LK‘PO[IUYUKT
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