Are cotton mills reducing cotton and increasing polyester coming?
According to the survey, the market price of 1.4D domestic polyester staple fiber and 1.5D viscose staple fiber has been concentrated at 7200-7400 yuan since November / ton, 15100-15300 yuan / ton, and the price difference between grade 3128 cotton is more than 8500 yuan / ton and 800 yuan / ton respectively. This has triggered doubts and concerns among cotton-related enterprises, research institutions and fabric authorities about “increasing chemical fiber and reducing cotton” in the procurement of cotton textile and weaving enterprises. Considering that the export of Xinjiang cotton in October and November was supported by multiple favorable factors such as insufficient transportation, peripheral bulk futures commodities, cotton enterprises’ centralized replenishment, and high lint costs, the delivery price of Xinjiang cotton from underground warehouses is generally 16,000-16,500 yuan/ton. (The market price of high-quality state-reserved Xinjiang cotton released in 2016 is also close to 16,000 yuan/ton). For most small and medium-sized spinning mills, weaving mills, fabric factories, workwear factories, and foreign trade companies receiving orders, Cotton’s “high cost, low profit, high risk” label is difficult to sign in the short term. The author infers that the operation of reducing cotton and increasing polyester by small and medium-sized textile enterprises has been going on since October, and the impact on the consumption of low-grade and low-quality cotton will be reflected in the first half of 2017; while large-scale fabric enterprises will focus on the stability of their products and the stability of their customers. From the perspective of spinning profits, the phenomenon of increased polyester will not be very prominent. In terms of consumption, the decline of cotton and the growth of chemical fibers require great attention but there is no need to exaggerate!
So what are the reasons that prompt small and medium-sized textile enterprises to adjust their raw material procurement and product structure? The author’s analysis is as follows:
First of all, the profit situation of polyester-cotton yarn is significantly better than that of pure cotton yarn. Taking T/C45S (65/35) yarn as an example (medium and high-count polyester-cotton yarns are more representative), the spinning cost is 7300*0.65+16000*0.35=10345 yuan/ton; due to the special loss of polyester short fiber spinning Therefore, the comprehensive spinning loss is calculated as 2% and the finishing fee is 5,500 yuan/ton. The ex-factory cost is approximately: 10,345*1.02+5,500≈16,050 yuan/ton; considering the need to pay the input and output tax difference and the cost of occupying capital for two months The total cost is no more than 17,000 yuan/ton (spinning yarn input and output taxes have been unified in some provinces); and the current quotations for T/C65/3545S yarn in the mainland market are concentrated at 17,600-17,700 yuan/ton, and the net profit of the yarn mill is at least More than 600 yuan/ton;
Secondly, domestic C32S and cotton yarns with lower counts do not have any cost or quality advantages compared to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. The low-end and low-count yarn market is inevitably declining. Some small and medium-sized spinning yarns Factories have to plan ahead. Compared with cotton yarn, polyester-cotton blended chemical fiber fabrics and polyester-viscose blended chemical fiber fabrics are less impacted by countries such as Southeast Asia and Bangladesh;
Once again, in November, small and medium-sized cotton textile mills are facing increasing financial pressure. Expenditures such as loan repayment, material fee settlement, and year-end wages, bonuses, etc. have forced manufacturers to reduce their share of raw materials as much as possible. The unit price of chemical fiber raw materials such as polyester staple fibers is low and the fluctuation range is small, and the yarn mills mainly focus on maintaining production.
Some cotton textile mills in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places said that reducing cotton and increasing polyester is only a short-term behavior. After all, the domestic and foreign sales space of polyester-cotton yarn and polyester-viscose yarn is not large and the demand is not yet Once the domestic cotton price drops to a reasonable level from January to March 2017, spinning pure cotton yarn with counts of C32S and below will be profitable and sales will be smooth. Textile companies will still return to mainly cotton yarn and blended chemical fiber fabric yarn. supplemented by the production pattern.
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