The cotton market has become the focus again, who has added “new fire” to “demon cotton”?
When it comes to the concern of the cotton textile industry chain, it must be the price of cotton. Since November 11, Zheng Cotton Futures has performed a “limit-up and limit-down” Since then, cotton prices have rebounded all the way, which can be said to be “the more you fight, the braver you get.” Everyone has speculated on what is the reason for the unstoppable rise in cotton prices. Some people say that the price of seed cotton has increased sharply, while others say that textile companies have increased their efforts to replenish their stocks. However, there is a very critical factor that we have ignored at this time. , that is in terms of transportation capacity.
This year, textile companies are focusing on Xinjiang cotton, which is strongly supported by national policies. With the orderly progress of Xinjiang cotton picking, purchasing, sorting, warehousing, and public inspection, the 2016 Xinjiang cotton The output, quality and other data are gradually becoming clearer. According to relevant data, Xinjiang’s total cotton output this year is expected to reach 3.8 million tons. However, such a large output has not significantly solved the problem of “difficulty in using cotton” in the mainland. According to surveys, Xinjiang’s cotton output is expected to reach 3.8 million tons. The surface sales progress is not satisfactory, and the outbound transportation of Xinjiang cotton has become a headache for Xinjiang cotton companies and mainland textile companies.
Is it difficult for Xinjiang cotton to get out of Xinjiang this year?
As we all know, the only two ways to move Xinjiang cotton to the inland are road transportation and railway transportation. After the implementation of the 500 yuan/ton freight subsidy policy for cotton transportation by road and rail, road freight rates and delivery times have obvious advantages over railways, and automobile transportation has become the first choice for Xinjiang cotton transportation.
However, due to the implementation of the new “Regulations on Highway Management of Over-limit Transport Vehicles” since September 21 this year, the transportation cost of lint cotton roads out of Xinjiang has increased significantly. The original six-axle vehicle can hold 165- 175 pieces, now it can only hold 130-135 pieces. In theory, this will increase the cost of cotton transportation by at least 20%. Under this circumstance, the truck transportation price of Xinjiang cotton to the inland warehouse was increased by about 100 yuan/ton in early October, and by 120-150 yuan/ton in mid-to-late October. In November, the truck transportation cost was increased by 100-200 yuan/ton across the board. The cumulative increase exceeds 300 yuan/ton. The “three consecutive increases” in road freight have caused cotton companies to shift their focus to railway transportation. However, according to the regulations of the Urumqi Railway Bureau, starting from November 1, the freight for 58-60 tons boxcars will be restored to the original price from the previous reduction of 7%. , the freight rate for 70-ton boxcars has been reduced by 8%.
Will cotton prices rebound due to tight shipping capacity?
Although Xinjiang transportation freight continues to rise, transportation capacity issues have affected the procurement of civilian cotton, cotton traders, and a few mainland cotton textile companies. Relevant people said: The pressure on roads and railways for Xinjiang cotton to leave Xinjiang is increasing. A cotton company in Henan said that since mid-November, the truck freight from Aksu to Zhengzhou, Nanyang and other places has risen to 950-1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 250 yuan/ton from the same period last year, but the price increase has a negative impact on transportation fleets and individual drivers. The appeal isn’t outstanding. In November and December, the pressure of short-term cotton being poured into warehouses in Xinjiang is still very high. Drivers do not have to worry about having no work to do. In addition, a vehicle in Xinjiang can transport 186 bales, while only about 133 bales can be shipped out of Xinjiang. The time is short and the income is high. Most of the vehicles in Xinjiang favored “short driving” and were unwilling to leave the Xinjiang.
With tight transportation capacity and rising freight costs, cotton prices have continued to rise since mid-November. The country’s cotton target price this year is 18,600 yuan/ton, and the current seed cotton purchase price has exceeded this price. A market analyst pointed out that the high price of seed cotton this year is an irrational market behavior. Driven by the overall sharp rise in commodities and oil mills and linters mills entering the market for acquisitions, cottonseed prices in Xinjiang have risen across the board. Some oil mills are worried about the decline in cottonseed maturity, low oil yield and large impurities in the later period, so they have raised prices to rush for the harvest.
In general, the price of Xinjiang cotton is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. At present, the raw material inventory of fabric companies is low, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. It is understood that in November, the number of mainland fabric companies going to Xinjiang to view goods and inquire about prices has increased. However, due to price and Xinjiang cotton transportation problems, the actual transaction volume is relatively small. The decisive battle between cotton textile mills and ginners and operators has yet to come. The entire cotton market in Xinjiang is immersed in the tranquility before the war. Neither buyer nor seller is willing to be responsible for transporting cotton out of Xinjiang. The author believes that it is not that there is a shortage of vehicles leaving Xinjiang at present, it is just that the freight is not paid in place, because both the buyer and the cotton enterprise must be “careful about the budget” when moving warehouses, and they can only operate with profits. Secondly, there is still some time before the Spring Festival travel season, and railway and other shipments will speed up. It can be seen from this that as long as railway transportation exerts its strength, how can there be a gap between supply and demand? In the medium and long term, as time goes by, factors such as the increase in the market volume of Xinjiang cotton, the easing of transportation capacity problems in Xinjiang, and the increase in Indian cotton supply will all affect the decline in cotton prices. Therefore, cotton companies must seize the opportunity to sell, and textile companies must seize the opportunity to purchase. .
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