Textile companies are about to focus on replenishing their stocks. How will cotton go?

As of now, textile companies are immediately concentrating on replenishing their stocks. All parties have different views on the market outlook. Zheng cotton futures have fluctuated sharply, and the market trend There is a lot of fog. At present, the purchase of new flowers is coming to an end, the cost of new cotton is basically stable, and the inventory of textile enterprises is reduced. It is estimated that the domestic demand for lint cotton is expected to gradually pick up in the later period. So, how will cotton go from mid-November to December? The author’s analysis is as follows: Seed cotton in the near future Prices are stable but falling, which is not conducive to the spot lint cotton. After rising last week, the price increase of seed cotton in Xinjiang and mainland China has shown signs of weakness entering this week. Due to high costs, manufacturers have also increased their mentality of lowering prices to compensate for losses.

As of the 17th, the purchase of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang has basically ended, and machine-picked seed cotton is in a state of price and no market. And in southern Xinjiang, The purchase of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang is accelerating. Among them, the price of 38% fine-staple cotton seed cotton is 7.25-7.3 yuan/kg, which is the same as yesterday. However, in some cotton areas, ginners are consciously pressured, and other low-price transactions are floating. Out of the water. In the Yellow River Basin in the Mainland, the price of seed cotton remains in the range of 6.9-7.65 yuan/kg, and there are still few purchasers, making it difficult for cotton farmers to sell cotton. Many ginners have reported that the cost of finishing has been upside down recently.

After last week’s increase in cotton prices, domestic lint spot prices have temporarily stagnated and stabilized this week. As of the 17th, The ex-factory price of grade 3 lint cotton in mainland ginning plants is 15,500-15,700 yuan/ton. The price of large bales of cotton is 300-400 yuan/ton higher than that of bales of cotton. However, small bales of cotton are still relatively smooth, and large bales of cotton are more difficult to sell. Xinjiang region The “Double 29” delivery price is around 16,000 yuan/ton, and the price of long-staple cotton is around 20,500 yuan/ton, with prices remaining stable. In addition, due to the fall in seed cotton prices, the cost of finishing newly harvested seed cotton into lint in some ginners is lower , in order to speed up capital turnover, some low-priced lint cotton has been put on the market, which is not conducive to the overall trend of lint cotton prices.

With the increasing volume of lint on the market and the poor export of fabrics and workwear, the purchasing willingness of downstream textile companies is still not high. As of now On November 17, the national cotton sales rate was 82.17%, of which Xinjiang’s sales progress was 93.8%; with the accumulation of seed cotton purchases in the later period, ginners gradually resumed operation, and the supply of lint cotton gradually increased.

According to customs data, in September, my country’s exports of fabric workwear were US$22.765 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. The largest monthly decline in the same period since 1998, the export situation is grim, the purchasing willingness of textile enterprises is still sluggish, the downstream consumption power is insufficient, and the demand is poor, causing the lint cotton to temporarily stagnate and stabilize.

Zheng cotton has experienced ups and downs, and is generally improving, which is good for the spot market of lint cotton. After the currency is issued excessively and real estate investment is strictly controlled, Capital flowed into the futures market, metal, black and other industrial products continued to surge, and funds began to speculate on agricultural products. The price of Zheng cotton continued to rise, which was good for the spot market of lint cotton. Although Zheng cotton fell by the limit on Tuesday, Zheng cotton closed up on heavy volume, closing at 15,800 yuan/ tons. The market believes that Zheng Cotton’s support level of 15,500 yuan/ton is particularly strong.

The supply of lint is limited, and manufacturers are still willing to raise prices. 2016��The cotton planting area in the Mainland continues to shrink significantly, and cotton production continues to shrink. Since the price of seed cotton is still high and the cost is high, the enthusiasm of ginners for finishing is not high. Most of them are still shut down and wait and see. The manufacturers have limited supply of lint cotton. The willingness to sell at low prices is not high, which supports the lint cotton and it is difficult to fall for the time being.

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