Zheng Mian has signs of upward breakthrough, but lacks motivation for breakthrough

At present, new cotton is on the market, and Xinjiang’s spot market resources are sufficient. However, downstream fabric companies have limited ability to accept new cotton, and orders for imported cotton yarn have increased significantly, which has had a negative impact on the market. However, in the short term, due to transportation problems, the amount of cotton in Xinjiang, the mainland, is not large. Fabric companies are facing the need to restock, and ginners have a price-carrying mentality, so the transaction price will not be too low. Long and short factors are intertwined. In the short term, Zheng cotton is range-bound. Short-term rolling operation.

Zheng Mian is facing an effective breakthrough in technology recently. Although Zheng Mian showed signs of an upward breakthrough yesterday, it currently lacks momentum for breakthrough. We will continue to pay attention to the direction of the breakthrough and the overall trend of the commodity. The macro factors are more variable this week. The U.S. election and the USDA monthly report will affect the macro outlook. Other investigations into thermal coal by the National Development and Reform Commission will also have an impact on market confidence. The price of black series fell back today. Pay attention to the systemic trend caused by the trend of black series. risk.

In recent days, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has rebounded slightly overall, with cotton farmers and cotton brokers actively selling, and the reluctance to sell has decreased. On November 7th and 8th, the purchase price of hand-picked cotton with 40 lint points and moisture content within 13% in some cotton areas such as Aksu and Kashgar was 7.40-7.50 yuan/kg, and 40 lint cotton was picked by machines in Kuitun, Jinghe, Shawan and other places in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price is 6.50-6.60 yuan/kg, which is 0.10-0.15 yuan/kg higher than that in late October.

First, the harvesting of seed cotton in most of the main cotton-producing areas in Xinjiang is coming to an end. The market volume of high-quality and high-grade flowers has declined, and the proportion of light-stained cotton and light yellow-dyed cotton has increased. Ginning The factory seized the last opportunity to rush for mid-harvest flowers, causing the price of seed cotton to rise;

Secondly, the listed prices of Zheng cotton futures and spot prices have oscillated and rebounded recently. Cotton enterprises have a strong awareness of “hedging” and risk aversion. In addition, cotton cotton and traders are more active in inquiring and picking up spot cotton from their rivals. , giving ginners the confidence to sprint for acquisition; thirdly, although the price of cottonseed has been reduced, it is still higher than 0.10-0.15 yuan/kg in mid-to-late October, and the comprehensive cost of lint has been continuously diluted.

Commodities fell sharply on Tuesday. The Zheng cotton contract shot higher after opening and then pulled back. The price fell in early trading and dropped to 15100 during the session. The price pulled back slightly in late trading. The 1701 contract rose by 15 to 15345, the 1705 contract rose by 35 to 15210, the 1709 contract rose by 25 to 15275, and Zheng Cotton’s position reached 477,000 lots. The quantity of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts is 597 (-8), and the quantity of valid warehouse receipts is 469 (+25). As of 24:00 on November 7, a total of 1.99 million tons of Xinjiang cotton had been sorted, and the cumulative public inspection volume nationwide was 1.612 million tons. As of November 6, a total of 1.664 million tons of Xinjiang cotton had been warehoused.

At present, the purchase price of seed cotton is relatively stable. The price of 40 cents of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang remains at around 7-7.4 yuan/kg, the price of machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is 6.1-6.7 yuan/kg, and the spot price of lint cotton is Quotations continue to stabilize. The gross weight of hand-picked cotton on “Double 28 and Double 29” supervision warehouses in Urumqi, Kuitun and other places is quoted at 15,600-16,000 yuan/ton, and machine-picked cotton is 15,000-15,500 yuan/ton. There is room for negotiation in actual transactions.

The price of Zheng cotton is above 15,300. The ginner’s profit from using cotton with high water content to make warehouse receipts is relatively considerable. Therefore, the amount of warehouse receipts is effectively forecast to increase in the near future. However, the current freight of Xinjiang cotton out of Xinjiang is expensive and the transportation capacity is tight. Remarkably, only 118,400 tons of cotton were transported out of Xinjiang by road in October, which was significantly lower than the 288,000 tons in the same period last year. In the short term, it will have a certain impact on the procurement of mainland fabric companies and the generation of warehouse receipts. After entering November, the daily truck transportation volume will increase. It is estimated that transportation problems will be alleviated in the future.

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