Since the second half of this year, the polyester industry chain has experienced irrational prices that have skyrocketed and plummeted. In this crazy market, there is one product that stands out from the crowd. Regardless of the early surge or the recent plunge, it has always maintained its own good profit margins and has an absolute dominance in this bloody storm of the polyester market. . It’s paraxylene – PX.
PX profits are at a 5-and-a-half-year high, PX-naphtha High oil price difference continues
The price difference between PX and naphtha in the first half of the year was still at a normal level, but after entering the second half of the year, PX equipment was intensively overhauled The demand for downstream PTA is strong, and under tight supply and demand, the PX market has risen strongly. As the price of PX rises sharply, the price difference between PX and naphtha continues to widen. Afterwards, the market for the polyester industry chain was booming, and PTA became the king of price increases in an instant. The polyester industry chain staged a surge in prices for nearly two months. With the promotion of PTA and the help of costs, the price of PX has been rising steadily, becoming a cash cow for manufacturers overnight.
In September, the peak season of the terminal polyester market was not booming. The polyester market suffered a quick freeze, the altar of PTA fell, and the prices of PTA and its downstream polyester products fell sharply. At the same time, profits continue to be squeezed. The market situation of the PTA industry chain took a turn for the worse, while PX profits were still abundant. The downstream launched an offensive to demand profits from PX. However, as the supply and demand side of PX was still tight, this profit encirclement and suppression battle was ultimately won by PX.
Since October, the crude oil market has suffered an air attack. The sharp drop in crude oil has brought about a fall in naphtha and PX. Although the cost surface has collapsed, the price difference between PX and naphtha has That is to say, PX processing profits remain at a high level. Even if the downstream PTA industry chain collectively falls into a loss situation, it is still difficult to shake the current abundant negative space of PX. It is reported that the current supply and demand of PX is not abundant, and the domestic PX production capacity has not been effectively released, and the high price difference between PX and naphtha may continue.
The profits of the industrial chain are gradually decreasing, and the profits of polyester filament have dropped by nearly a thousand yuan
The terminal downstream missed appointments during the peak season, causing the polyester filament market to suffer from intestinal obstruction for more than a month. Under the pressure of high inventory, the price of polyester filament manufacturers fell by a small amount in two days and a large amount in three days. Since September, the price of polyester filament has dropped by nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. While prices have fallen sharply, it is naturally difficult to maintain profits. Recently, the polyester filament market has fallen into a relatively obvious state of loss. As can be seen from the table below, the theoretical cash flow of polyester on the 14th is basically above the profit and loss line. If we look at the actual profit situation, polyester filament is basically already at a loss. At a loss. In the same period last month, although the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol continued to fall, the decline was greater than that of polyester filament. The profit margin of polyester filament was once expanded to around 1,000 yuan. However, only one month later, the decline of polyester raw materials slowed down. However, the decline in polyester filament yarn is intensifying, and the profit margin of polyester yarn is suddenly exhausted.
Judging from the current situation in the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain, crude oil has begun to show signs of stabilizing after experiencing 12 consecutive declines recently. Crude oil has stopped falling. To a certain extent, the negative sentiment of the market has been calmed. The polyester raw material PTA has stopped falling, and ethylene glycol has rebounded strongly. The polyester industry chain seems to have released a positive signal to the outside world. The current raw material market has stopped falling and rebounded. Under the influence of production restrictions, the supply and demand side of polyester filament has greatly improved. Polyester filament has finally found a reason to increase prices. In the short term, with the improvement of costs and its own supply and demand situation, , polyester filament may be able to usher in a rebound, and its loss situation may be repaired.
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