Sometimes the sun shines brightly, and sometimes there are dark clouds. The polyester market in the recent period is like this changeable weather. The noise of price increases not long ago seems to have not dissipated, but now the noise of price drops has come one after another.
Last week, driven by favorable factors such as the sharp rise in international oil prices, PTA futures rose strongly on the 10th and 11th. It was originally thought that polyester filament could also take this opportunity to usher in a wave of “weekend market” again. However, unexpectedly, PTA futures turned sharply downward on the 12th, with a sharp intraday plunge, and the spot price changed accordingly; the expected reversal in the polyester filament market also dissipated.
1. Lack of “Weekend market” guidance, polyester filament quotations fell by 200-400 yuan/ton
Due to the lack of “weekend market” guidance, polyester filament prices have dropped in recent days The market is even more depressed. On the 15th, the quotations of some polyester manufacturers were reduced sporadically; however, by the 16th, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers had fallen sharply, and the price decline of each product had expanded, with the decline at the level of 200-400 yuan/ton.
Specific prices on the 16th, Jiangsu direction: the polyester yarn quotation of a factory in Jiangsu fell by 300-500 yuan/ton; the polyester yarn POY quotation of a factory in Taicang fell by 200-300 yuan/ton. ; FDY of a factory in Wuxi fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the transaction was negotiated. Direction to Tongxiang: A major polyester yarn manufacturer in Tongxiang has a sales discount of 200-300 yuan/ton. Xiaoshao direction: FDY of a factory in Shaoxing fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the transaction is negotiated; POY of a factory in Xiaoshan fell by 200-400 yuan/ton.
2. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and polyester production and sales have dropped to 20-40%
In addition to price fluctuations, the production and sales of polyester factories are also the focus of market attention. Since July, the transaction atmosphere in the polyester filament market has been quite light, especially as the panic in the downstream market caused by PTA once falling to the limit has intensified. Most of the time, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have been running at a low level. Especially in recent trading days, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have dropped sharply to around 20-40%, which is really a low production and sales stage during the year.
July 3-5, polyester production and sales 2-3
From July 8th to 10th, polyester production and sales were 10% to 30%;
On July 11th, under the strong rise of international oil prices and PTA, polyester The manufacturer’s production and sales have just exceeded 100. When the market started before, production and sales easily exceeded 100 or even higher;
From July 12 to 15, polyester production and sales were 30-40%;
On July 16, although the quotations of mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have declined, the overall production and sales of polyester are still average. Mainstream production and sales are concentrated at 60-70%, and most of them are POY.
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3. Low inventory was “drowned” and the inventory alarm sounded again
Low inventory in the polyester market was once thought to be Ao, the inventory dropped to the lowest level since the Spring Festival, which also supported the steady rise of polyester filament prices to a certain extent. However, as the mainstream production and sales of polyester continue to be depressed, the proudly low inventory is gradually being “swamped”, and the market inventory alarm is sounded again.
According to statistics from China Silk Capital Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has increased slightly to 12-21 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory has reached 7-11 days , FDY inventory is around 12-18 days, while DTY inventory is around 20-25 days. If production and sales continue to be weak, inventory pressure on polyester manufacturers may further increase.
Whether the price of the polyester filament market is falling, production and sales are weak, or inventory is increasing, the key is the lack of mutual cooperation and boost from the upstream and downstream markets.
1. PTA steps out of “climbing” and “diving” “The trend has caused a certain impact
The first to bear the brunt is naturally the international oil price. The sudden rise and fall of crude oil prices has directly affected a lot of market confidence. On June 29, the heads of state of China and the United States met at the G20 Osaka Summit and announced the resumption of trade negotiations between China and the United States, which brought benefits to the market; but then, as the market believed that the crude oil production reduction agreement was not as good as expected, international oil prices began to plummet, falling by more than 4 %. On July 9, the trade negotiations between China and the United States made phased progress. On the 10th, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut. Coupled with the recent tensions in Iran, international oil prices rose by more than 4% that day; however, this wave of gains was once again suppressed. Beat�.
Under the influence of fundamentals and capital, PTA futures have recently gone out of the “climbing” and “diving” trends; the market price of another polyester raw material, ethylene glycol, is also the same Ups and downs. On July 9, chemical products fell sharply across the board. Ethylene glycol fell to the limit in late trading, cotton closed the limit, and PTA opened lower and moved lower. On the 10th, PTA and MEG continued to run at low levels. However, near the end of the trading, PTA futures showed a “style” “Sudden change”, it was caught off guard and pulled up strongly. The rise lasted for a short time. On the 12th, PTA futures turned sharply downward, diving sharply during the session, and then ran weakly. Affected by futures, the upstream polyester raw material spot market has also experienced ups and downs, which has had a certain impact on the polyester filament market.
2. Weaving manufacturers are not willing to stock up on goods, and their operating rates have declined
It is understood that most weaving manufacturers have recently Manufacturers are relatively indifferent to the rise and fall of raw materials and are not in a hurry to sell. In the early stage, most weaving manufacturers had a few months’ worth of goods on hand. As long as production does not drop in the early stage, weaving manufacturers can maintain normalcy without replenishment for at least half a month. Production.
On another key aspect, it is reported that the inventory of textile enterprises in northern Jiangsu and central and western regions is generally about 2 months. Under inventory pressure, many weaving manufacturers have recently begun to Production reduction and holidays. Entering July, the operating rate of the weaving market has dropped. Among them, the operating rate of the main clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has also declined. The current operating rate of water-jet looms is concentrated at about 80%; the operating rate of warp knitting is over 50%; the operating rate of circular knitting machines is over 50%. It dropped to about 50%. Compared with last month, the operating load dropped by 17 percentage points month-on-month, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production was obviously frustrated.
The “summer vacation” effect brought about by weaving manufacturers reducing production suspensions may reduce the purchase demand for raw materials to a certain extent; and it is reported that polyester manufacturers have also recently carried out maintenance and other actions, which may alleviate the corresponding inventory pressure. For the better and orderly development of the textile market, we hope that both polyester manufacturers and weaving manufacturers can maintain stable operations and reduce speculation and speculation! </p
