On the 7th, the production and sales of polyester filament once soared to around 220%-230%, with the best reaching 500% and 800%. Good production and sales have led to a decrease in polyester filament inventory. As of the 7th, the overall inventory of polyester filament has slightly dropped to 13-22 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory has reached 6-10 days, and FDY inventory has reached around 13-19 days. The DTY inventory is about 21-26 days old.
Why did the production and sales of polyester filament suddenly explode?
1. Weaving manufacturers are driven by the mentality of buying raw materials but not buying them;
2. The promotion efforts of chemical fiber companies on raw materials Increase;
3. The operating rate of weaving manufacturers has increased: the high temperature days are gradually receding, and manufacturers that had previously suspended production began to resume production, so they need to purchase raw materials.
4. The shipment of some autumn and winter products has become loose.
Then the weaving startup rate and Polyester filament production and sales have rebounded. Does this mean that downstream demand is showing signs of recovery and the polyester market will skyrocket?
The answer is: NO!
Through research, although some autumn and winter orders have moved slightly, the overall order receiving situation in the weaving market is still not objective. A textile boss reported: “The market is really weaker than boiled water. We have no orders now. We have made a lot of samples this month, at least 200 samples, but not a single order has come in. I don’t know what’s going on.” Although there are many proofs, it proves that the market is still circulating. At the same time, the cost of proofing is low. Traders and clothing manufacturers can better understand the market trends through proofing. However, this situation of only seeing proofs but not placing orders shows that purchasing in the terminal clothing market is still hesitant.
At the same time, judging from the sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, the current prosperity The inventory of gray fabrics in the Ze area is about 42 days old, which has reached a high level in two years. Judging from the current market situation, it still takes a certain period to consume such a high inventory.
Looking at the recent situation in the clothing market, there are also “scenery” everywhere: New Look and Forever 21 have closed stores one after another and completely withdrawn from China. Market; Dressbarn filed for bankruptcy and closed 35 stores before the end of August; La Chapelle lost hundreds of millions of yuan in the first half of the year and frantically closed more than 2,400 offline stores… The huge losses and store closures of clothing brands are bound to have an impact on the market demand has a greater impact. In addition, Trump claimed that he would impose additional tariffs on US$300 billion of Chinese goods from September 1st; the RMB broke through “7” for the first time in 11 years… There has also been a lot of bad external news recently, which also has a negative impact on the textile market. Walking well brings obstacles! In addition to the still weak terminal demand, the cost side of polyester yarn is also insufficiently supported
1. PTA has stumbled and has limited room for rebound in the future
Since July, PTA has been “non-stop”, falling to the limit on the 5th and continuing its downward trend. After the combined negative pressure from fundamentals + macro + news, the current PTA price has fallen to a two-year low, and the futures price is also hovering around 5,000 points. PTA profit is currently 318 yuan/ton, which is a significant decrease of 1,441 yuan/ton compared with 1,759 yuan/ton on July 2.
In addition, multiple new units of PX, the raw material for PTA, will be put into production in the second half of the year. In terms of new domestic production capacity, Sinochem Hongrun’s new unit PX products will be launched in August; 9 Hainan Refining and Chemical’s 1 million tons/year PX unit will be put into operation in October, and Hengyi Brunei’s 1.5 million tons/year PX unit will be put into operation; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 4 million tons/year PX unit will be put into operation in October, and the new PX capacity in the second half of the year will be huge.
(The picture shows the PX new production capacity launch plan in 2019)
Concentrated release of PX production capacity Under the pressure, PTA may break down and the cost side collapses.
2. Ethylene glycol destocking is obvious, but profits are still on the verge of loss
Since the listing of ethylene glycol futures Since then, it has been “unconventional” and it is difficult to agree with the PTA. In the recent period, the destocking effect of ethylene glycol has been obvious. According to statistics, the current inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China has dropped to around 1.033 million tons. The internal and external prices are also rising slightly, but its profits have been hovering at 0 points.
It is reported that there are currently more than 60 ethylene glycol projects under construction or planned in China, with a total production capacity of nearly 30 million tons, of which around 2020 Approximately 6 million tons of new production capacity will be added. In the case of little change on the demand side, domestic devices are put into production intensively, coupled with the continuous increase in imports, the supply side has grown significantly, which is bound to have a negative impact on BThe price of glycols has been suppressed.
In general, from the perspective of the downstream demand market, the periodic recovery of the market at this time does not represent the general trend of the market. At the same time, there is still a risk that the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol will fall. The cost support for polyester filament is no longer available. Therefore, it is not easy for the polyester filament market to turn around at this time! In the near future, we need to pay attention to the purchasing intensity of the terminal clothing market, the consumption of inventory by weaving companies, and the progress of Sino-US trade.
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