With the PTA market “jumping up and down”, ups and downs, the polyester market has also been fluctuating in recent times, which has made textile people quite “scared”. From the perspective of polyester market segmentation products, among various polyester filament products, POY products have performed relatively most steadily recently.
1. Once polyester production and sales explode, POY sales will inevitably be the most prominent
In recent years Over the past few months, the overall production and sales performance of the polyester market has been mostly mediocre. From time to time, due to favorable market stimulation or price fluctuations, the average production and sales may exceed 100, experiencing a “two-day tour” or “three-day tour” situation. . Once the production and sales of polyester explode, the most outstanding performance in the hot production and sales must be POY manufacturers.
We know that the last time production and sales exploded was on August 7. The market transaction atmosphere was active that day, and mainstream production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly to around 220-230%; POY manufacturers are none other than POY. Some manufacturers’ production and sales are as high as 500% or even 800%, far exceeding the overall level.
2. Once the good signal is released, POY prices will rebound most rapidly
Recently, polyester filament yarn Mainstream manufacturers mostly focus on weak quotations and downward adjustments. Occasionally, the PTA spot spot rebounds or the release of positive market signals such as a sharp increase in production and sales on the previous trading day drives the polyester filament products to temporarily stop falling and rebound. POY manufacturers are definitely The most responsive. Once the confidence of the polyester industry chain is boosted by favorable conditions, POY mainstream products will have room for an increase of 50-200 yuan/ton, which is higher or faster than FDY and DTY products.
3. Mainstream polyester inventories are increasing, but POY manufacturers have the least inventory pressure
In Here, what must be mentioned is inventory. Affected by the recent low production and sales, the current mainstream inventory of polyester is gradually increasing. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now around 13-22 days.
From the perspective of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated at 6-10 days, FDY inventory is around 13-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 21-26 days. It is clear at a glance that the inventory of POY manufacturers is low among several categories of products. All along, regardless of whether the overall polyester market inventory is at a high or low level during the year, POY product inventory is basically below the average mainstream inventory.
In a weak market, POY can “stand out”. What exactly does it rely on?
1. POY’s scale effect is highlighted and its bargaining power is enhanced!
In recent years, the concentration of production capacity in the polyester industry has continued to increase. Especially during 2017-2018, news of leading companies in the polyester industry “taking over” bankrupt companies frequently spread, such as Hengyi’s acquisition of Hongjian, Longteng, etc.; in addition, the new polyester production capacity in recent years has basically come from Tongkun, It is produced by several polyester giants such as Xinfengming, Hengyi, and Rongsheng.
POY itself is a product with highly concentrated production capacity, which is one of the reasons why industry supply-side meetings have repeatedly affected its price trend in the past two years. Although the market price is ultimately determined by market conditions, the high concentration of production capacity also means that POY has relatively strong bargaining power with upstream and downstream companies, and its pricing power is even stronger.
According to statistics, as of the end of 2018, the national POY production capacity was approximately 23.15 million tons; of which, Hengyi Petrochemical totaled 5.8 million tons, and Tongkun Group A total of 5.1 million tons, Xinfengming Group totaled 3.7 million tons, accounting for about 63% of the total POY production capacity. The newly added POY production capacity this year is still mainly concentrated in large factories. Xinfengming has 300,000 tons of POY, Tongkun has 300,000 tons of POY, and Fujian Jingwei has 200,000 tons of POY (POY+FDY).
2. The number of texturing machines is increasing year by year, and the rigid demand must exist!
From the perspective of POY market demand, it mainly comes from downstream texturing manufacturers and weaving manufacturers. Since 2013, the number of texturing machines on the market has increased dramatically; new production capacity has been released intensively, and texturing products once entered a situation of overcapacity. However, the number of texturing machines is still increasing every year. This year’s textile market conditions are not ideal, which has had a big impact on the texturing market, but has also increased the speculative mentality of some texturing manufacturers. If there are fluctuations in the upstream market or macroeconomics, causing POY prices to fall rapidly or suddenly rise, it will stimulate texturing manufacturers.
In addition to professional texturing manufacturers, some weaving manufacturers with scale and financial strength have also put into production texturing machines in order to reduce their own costs, thereby reducing the need to purchase low-elasticity fabrics. The packaging cost of silk. Some of the DTY produced by these weaving manufacturers meets their own needs, and some is also sold externally; this also increases the rigid demand for POY products accordingly.</p
