At around 13:20 on October 11, Beijing time, an oil tanker owned by the National Iranian Oil Company exploded and caught fire near the port of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. International oil prices surged in the short term in response, with WTI rising to US$54.66/barrel, a new high in eight trading days; Brent rising to US$60.39/barrel, a new high in nine trading days.
This is following the attack on Saudi Arabian Oil Company’s refining facilities on September 14. After the plane attack, oil supplies in the Middle East were disrupted again. As of the close of the day, WTI November crude oil futures prices rose by $1.15 to close at $54.70 per barrel, an increase of 2.15%; Brent crude oil futures prices for December rose by $1.41 to close at $60.51 per barrel, an increase of 2.39%.
There was a “thunder” in the crude oil market, and I thought that the polyester market would Setting off a storm can alleviate the recent “calm as water” market conditions. However, it seems to be a “false shot”. Whether it is PTA, ethylene glycol futures, or the spot market, the performance is quite dull. Of course, polyester filament is also difficult to get a good boost.
1. With over 100 production and sales, it’s actually another “one-day trip”?
On the 11th, the transaction atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas heated up, and the overall production and sales increased. According to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories are concentrated around 130%-140%, and some are higher than 220%, 300%, etc. However, the mainstream production and sales of polyester had already exceeded 100 before midday, mainly driven by manufacturers’ price cuts and promotional offers. The increase in oil prices after midday did not significantly stimulate downstream purchasing actions.
In fact, since entering the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period, the production and sales of the polyester market have exceeded 100, which is really rare. It can also be clearly seen from the above figure that in the past month or so, the number of mainstream production and sales exceeding 100 is not only relatively small, but also very short-lived, mostly “one-day tour” prices. In particular, the expected stocking before the National Day and the replenishment after the holiday were not satisfactory. After the short holiday, the mainstream production and sales of polyester were mostly concentrated around 60-80%. After a brief improvement on the 11th, it was still difficult to improve. On the 12th, the market trading atmosphere fell again, and the mainstream production and sales dropped to 50-60%.
2. The inventory has just dropped, unexpectedly Upgrading again?
Although there is a gap between the mainstream polyester inventory and the expected low inventory in September, and the inventory decline rate is relatively slow, it is at least lower than that in July and August. However, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of polyester manufacturers has obviously increased due to factors such as the suspension of production and holidays by downstream weaving manufacturers.
Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has now risen to 14-23 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory has also increased to 6-10 days, and FDY inventory has increased. to around 12-17 days, while DTY inventory is around 21-26 days.
3. The profits have “flyed”, but there are still losses?
In fact, low production and sales and high inventory are not the most distressing. For polyester manufacturers, the worst thing is that their profits have been “deprived” of them. The profits of POY, DTY and other products have gradually shrunk, and they can only maintain low-profit operations. The FDY product has even suffered losses.
Specifically, FDY 150D still had a profit of 488 in early September Yuan/ton, second only to POY and even higher than DTY. However, since October, the profit margin has shrunk rapidly and a loss situation has occurred. The current loss margin has reached about 100 yuan. The profit of POY 150D products dropped from 513 yuan/ton in early September to 140 yuan/ton, which was only a slight profit. (Note: Due to differences in production processes among various manufacturers, the costs involved may vary, so the profits we calculate are only theoretical profits and losses, and actual differences vary.)
Polyester filament, which cannot even be driven by international oil prices this time, is ultimately due to lack of demand support. Not only during the National Day, most weaving manufacturers chose to suspend production and take holidays, reducing the startup rate to relieve accumulated inventory pressure; but after the holiday, the overall performance of the surface and lining market also varied. The overcapacity of conventional products in the market is still relatively obvious, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production not tall. To a certain extent, this naturally greatly reduces the motivation of weaving manufacturers to prepare and purchase raw materials.
