Recently, some weaving manufacturers said: Entering September, the market seems to have picked up, and some traders have begun to place large orders here, and we Because there was too much inventory before, and now I want to clear some inventory, I gave a lower price.
According to the sample companies tested by China Silk City Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is about 38-39 days, which is 38-39 days higher than that in early September. The inventory days of about 40 days have declined, but compared with the same period last year, the inventory of gray fabrics is still at a high level.
As a platform between weaving manufacturers and clothing buyers, traders are now starting to If the price of gray fabrics is large, does it mean that the textile market will improve in the future?
1. Raw material prices are at a historical position
From the perspective of raw materials, raw material prices have been ups and downs since this year, but the fluctuation range is not very large. . Overall, the current price of raw materials is close to the historical position. Specifically, taking polyester filament FDY 50D/24F as an example, the current price is around 8,800 yuan. The price in the same period last year was around 12,600 yuan, a significant drop of around 3,800 yuan. . Taking polyester filament POY 150D/144F as an example, the current price is around 7,800 yuan, compared with around 11,200 yuan in the same period last year, a significant drop of around 3,400 yuan. Taking polyester filament DTY 100D/36F as an example, the current price is around 10,000 yuan, compared with around 13,000 in the same period last year, a significant drop of around 3,000 yuan.
Whether it is POY, FDY, or DTY, the current price is close to the low level in two years. It is difficult to have any room for decline. In the future, the price may not It is lower than it is now, so there is a lot of room for a rebound in raw material prices later.
2. Simulated silk has begun to improve
What is the market trend? The key is to see whether the ordinary and conventional varieties can be shipped smoothly. After all, it is conventional There are many manufacturers of varieties. During the visits and surveys in recent days, some weaving manufacturers revealed that our 75D 24-twist chiffon has been very popular recently. Now we have more than 2 million meters of orders, and it will take about 10 days to ship. This situation is There was absolutely no such thing before September.
Chiffon is the most common variety. During the off-season of July and August, there is a lot of selling on the market. The streets are full of people selling “sell it for money”, and even in September In the survey last month, some manufacturers said that there was still a phenomenon of selling goods in the market, which greatly disrupted the market price and made it difficult to sell their chiffon.
Now that chiffon is beginning to show improvement, even if the order of more than 2 million meters is just a rumor from one family, it can also show from the side that the market demand is still getting better, and conventional varieties have not entered the market.” dead end”. Traders are purchasing large quantities of goods, perhaps also preparing for next spring and summer. After all, products are made from low-price raw materials now, and they can still be sold at high prices next year when the market is good.
3. The international situation has begun to improve
The repeated Sino-US trade has been the focus of textile people in the past two years. Tariffs Problems have also been plaguing the textile market. On the 11th, US President Trump announced that he would suspend the tariffs imposed on China on the 15th. He believed that China and the United States were “very close” to ending the trade war.
The tax increase lists between China and the United States cover almost all trade in goods. Specific to the textile industry, the US tax increase list involves most of China’s chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics, and carpets. , industrial textiles, clothing and home textiles. Regarding foreign trade, since the beginning of Sino-US trade, American customers have been hesitant to place orders, and many companies have said that their orders to the United States have shrunk to a large extent this year.
Now that there are signs of easing in Sino-US trade, there may be a big breakthrough in foreign trade in the coming Christmas season. The previously backlogged orders may be able to be issued, and the shrinking profits may be You can also make up for it.
4. The market is cyclical
Factory closure, production suspension, production reduction, holiday… These words are common this year , textile people call it “the worst year”. This year’s market has hit the confidence of many textile people, and it is not new to sell factories and change careers. But the market is cyclical. There has always been a saying in the textile market that “three good years are good and three bad years are bad.” This year has reached the bottom, but it may rebound next year. Many textile companies still have expectations for the next market situation.
“The main problem this year is overcapacity. With so many factories closed now, the market will always pick up later. I think next year will be better. Even if next year is not good, the market will be better next year.” The year will be better.” Said the person in charge of an enterprise with nearly 1,000 looms.
“Golden Nine” is not “gold”, and “Silver Ten” seems not strong enough, but the temperature will turn colder, the Double Eleven e-commerce season and the Christmas season are around the corner, plus various Given the positive factors, the market may pick up before the year ends. Whether textile workers can celebrate the New Year with their wallets in their pockets depends on how the market will behave in the next three months.
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