T400, T800, and recycled fabrics were actively traded. Jet fabrics such as nylon and cotton elastic were sold in large volumes. Lining materials such as lightweight textiles and Shumei silk were also heated up. Some individuals The dyeing factory has been liquidated… In just one week, the textile market has ushered in a long-awaited boom!
Weaving manufacturers are “noisy”, but polyester manufacturers are extremely Calm down! Since the beginning of September, the market price of polyester filament has fallen by more than a thousand yuan.
In recent times, the profit shrinkage of various polyester filament products has been particularly obvious. In particular, FDY 150D lost nearly 78 yuan/ton. POY and DTY products are also mostly near the profit and loss line.
Similarly, the production and sales of the polyester market are not optimistic, and the market price exceeding 100 is really only a handful.
It can be said that the “gold and nine silvers” of the polyester market Ten” has fallen into the “dead end” of endless price drops! As the scale of upstream polyester production capacity has continued to increase in recent years, demand mentality has become more conservative, and supply has fallen into a “strange cycle” of being transferred to downstream rather than being actually digested. Recently, the market has also fallen into a “dead end” of weak demand and frequent price drops. Judging from the current market situation, both polyester and downstream polyester are panicking because of frequent price drops. Due to the unpredictable price bottom and risk aversion, the market cannot hold strong demand support and has fallen into a cycle of endless further price drops. It can be seen that the price has stopped falling and the market has reversed, but the essence still needs to be supported by strong demand.
1. The demand for raw materials is no longer competitive and has fallen into inventory. Passing on the “strange circle”
Although the textile market is ushering in a period of improvement, weaving manufacturers still maintain a relatively cautious attitude towards raw material procurement, mainly because they do not I dare not, but I dare not. On the one hand, I do not dare to stock up on raw materials in large quantities due to financial pressure. On the other hand, it is also due to considerations of the market. Unless there is a big market situation, which is unlikely, it is more reliable to purchase raw materials flexibly.
According to market understanding, textile companies currently generally have raw materials in stock but do not stock up. Even if they have replenishment needs, the inventory may be exhausted around the end of the month. It can be seen from this that as the upstream polyester production capacity continues to increase, active sales, inventory control, and maintaining and stabilizing customer sources have become the main lines of operation. However, textile companies are conservative in observing the market. In addition to procurement, even if the polyester factory effectively supervises and sells goods, most of its supply will be transferred to the downstream and become downstream raw material inventory. Then the weaving companies will digest this part of the inventory, and at the same time, the trading volume in the polyester factory will be relatively dull. Polyester factories, on the other hand, continued to maintain production and entered a new round of inventory accumulation phase under the immediate demand.
2. The upstream raw materials “Air Force Gathering” impact polyester filament Market
The price drop of polyester filament yarn is partly due to the simultaneous decline of the entire upstream industry chain. Since the second half of the year, with the decline of Zhejiang Petrochemical When the major PX factories were put into production, the entire polyester industry chain suddenly changed. PX prices collapsed, and profits have returned to 65 months ago. PTA’s decline has spread, and prices have also dropped back to two years ago. In the future, whether it is PX, PTA, or ethylene glycol, there are expectations for a large number of devices to be put into production. The phenomenon of oversupply is more prominent and has become the key to restraining the market from rising. This has formed a cost perspective for the polyester filament market. impact.
In general, the polyester industry chain is “standing still” and no one is Don’t dare to pull the string of price increase easily! Since October, dragged down by the sharp decline in international crude oil, market prices have continued to consolidate at low levels after falling back from highs, and it is difficult for market trading to show a significant improvement. And there is an expectation of imbalance between supply and demand in the market, causing prices to bottom out again. Relying solely on the phased recovery of terminals without buying raw materials is not enough to drive the market to rebound. Therefore, in the short term, the author believes that sustainable benefits are difficult to find, and the pressure on the market supply side is still high.
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