Duang!
PTA fell below 4800 points!
MEG fell below 4500 points!
PTA fell below 4800 points, hitting a new high Lowest point of the year!
In the afternoon of November 6th, the PTA futures market suddenly changed. Instead of running steadily in the early stage, the market suddenly went down, and its decline spread to the 7th. The futures not only fell for two consecutive trading days, but the main contract fell by 1.44% and 1.7% respectively, and continued to fall below 4800 points; as of the closing at 15:00 on the 7th, the main 2001 contract closed at 4754 yuan/ton, setting a new low for the year !
Under the pressure of futures, the PTA spot market also showed a weak adjustment situation. As of the 7th, the mainstream spot quotation dropped to about 4750-4800 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price was Around 4730-4780 yuan/ton; it also became the lowest price during the year.
Ethylene glycol fell below 4,500 points, breaking the stable situation for nearly half a month!
After the ethylene glycol market fluctuated for more than half a month, it fell into a downward channel again, with futures closing down for three consecutive trading days. The main 2001 contract has fallen for three consecutive trading days, falling 0.24%, 1.95%, and 1.61% respectively. As of 15:00 on the 7th, it closed at 4456 points. Of course, the ethylene glycol spot market cannot escape the fate of downward adjustment, and its spot price has dropped to around 4,470 yuan/ton.
Caught off guard, there is another wave of falling prices!
What is also inevitable is the upstream and downstream markets for polyester!
1. The expected reduction in demand for crude oil is negative for international oil prices
As a polyester source product, fluctuations in crude oil prices naturally affect the polyester market at all times. It is reported that on November 5, OPEC released its latest annual report, lowering the global mid- to long-term crude oil demand forecast and saying that the organization’s market share in the next five years is expected to be squeezed by the United States and other countries. Reduced OPEC oil production forecast: Demand for OPEC crude oil is expected to decrease by 7% before 2023. OPEC oil production is forecast to fall to 32.8 million barrels per day in 2024 from 35 million barrels per day in 2019 due to increases in production from other oil-producing countries. Affected by the bad news in the market, international oil prices fell weakly on November 6. WTI December crude oil futures fell by US$0.88 to US$56.35/barrel; Brent January crude oil futures fell by US$1.22 to US$61.74/barrel.
2. Plants are put into operation and restarted, and the supply side increases
In recent times, whether it is PTA or ethylene glycol, many plants have been put into operation and restarted, resulting in The supply side increases. From the perspective of PTA, as we all know, Xinfengming Dushan’s 2.2 million-ton PTA plant was officially put into production on October 30. In addition, Sichuan Energy’s 1 million-ton PTA unit was shut down on November 1 and restarted on November 3; Hengli Dalian’s 2.2 million-ton PTA unit was overhauled on October 26 and was restarted on November 6. Restart. The Fujian Jialong 600,000-ton PTA unit was shut down in August and plans to restart in mid-to-early November. As for ethylene glycol, there is news in the market that Hengli Petrochemical’s 900,000-ton ethylene glycol project has entered the start-up stage, and the device is still expected to be put into production in the fourth quarter.
3. Polyester filament is facing pressure from all sides and the demand is weak
As the main downstream source of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, polyester filament has been under pressure from all parties recently. The market has mostly been weakly adjusted, and the quotations of the products of mainstream manufacturers have continued to fall. , and once again hit a new low for the year. In recent times, not only has the price been weak, but also losses and high inventory have shrouded the polyester filament market.
Since this year, high inventory has been surrounding polyester manufacturers. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has increased to 16-25 days; specifically, In terms of products, POY inventory lasts 7-11 days, FDY inventory lasts around 14-19 days, and DTY inventory lasts around 22-27 days. In addition, FDY and POY manufacturers are facing losses, which to a certain extent restricts the demand for upstream raw materials.
It is understood that the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market fell back to around 40-50% on the 7th, and it is difficult to boost the downstream polyester market. This naturallyHowever, it has also restricted the polyester raw material market; coupled with the increase in PTA and ethylene glycol plant commissioning and restart plans, it is difficult to see positive results on the supply side. In the short term, the market may not be positive? </p
