On December 24, Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA futures “headed up” at the end of the trading day. The main 2005 contract closed at 4,966 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 70 yuan/ton, or 1.43%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. .
Boosted by futures, PTA spot performance was originally calm In the market, the price center also rose sharply in the afternoon, with the mainstream offer price rising to around 4790-4870 yuan/ton.
Ethylene glycol, also a polyester raw material, has experienced After the “crazy” market some time ago, the market fell under pressure for four consecutive trading days, and finally returned to the upward trend after midday on the 24th. On the 24th, DCE MEG futures surged and closed higher near the end of the trading day. The main 2005 contract closed at 4,618 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 21 yuan/ton, or 0.46%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. In the afternoon of the 24th, the spot price of ethylene glycol also moved upward, with the internal price quoted at around 5,190 yuan/ton, and the external market price rising slightly, with the cargo price quoted at US$585/ton slightly above.
Under the originally seemingly negative situation, polyester raw materials The market suddenly ushered in a wave of good news. What is the reason? Market hype? Driven by PX shortage? Increased downstream demand?
But we also I don’t dare to delve too deeply into it, so let’s analyze it from the fundamentals and see what the polyester market has been like in recent days!
First of all, from the perspective of the supply of polyester raw materials itself, in terms of PTA, the current market average operating rate Concentrated at 85.5%, a decrease of 0.9% compared with the 13th; the real-time operating rate was 87.3%, and the real-time effective operating rate was 93.7%. And market maintenance plans are also being launched one after another. For example, a 2.25 million-ton PTA unit of Yisheng Hua plans to shut down for maintenance at the end of December and is expected to last until mid-January; Yisheng Ningbo 4# 2.2 million-ton PTA unit plans to shut down for maintenance at the end of January and is expected to last until mid-January. It will last until mid-February.
As for ethylene glycol, although the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port has increased in recent days as the ports are gradually unblocked, the overall inventory is still at a low level. It is understood that as of the 23rd, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was approximately 355,000 tons, including 168,000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 70,000 tons in Ningbo, 27,000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 47,000 tons in Taicang.
Secondly, it naturally comes from the support from the downstream demand side. As the core downstream polyester raw material – polyester filament, the polyester filament market has performed quite strongly recently. Not only did the prices of polyester filament products rise steadily, but they also increased to varying degrees one after another. Another thing worth noting is that the mainstream inventory of polyester has dropped. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 9-18 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 3-7 days, FDY inventory is around 7-12 days, and DTY inventory is around 7-12 days. to about 14-19 days.
To highlight, on the 24th, stimulated by the positive market conditions, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas improved significantly in the afternoon, and the long-lost over 100 market prices returned. According to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories have risen sharply to around 120%-140%, and some higher production and sales have reached levels of 200% or even 300%.
Finally, it must come from the situation on the weaving end. Since it is approaching the end of December, it is the stocking node at the end of the month, and coupled with the stocking needs of some weaving manufacturers before the Spring Festival, there is more or less certain demand support. In terms of weaving, although the overall transaction performance of the fabric market has been mixed in December, and the transaction of market orders has come to an end, spring and summer clothing fabrics have partially increased their volume, and some traders have stockpiling operations.
For example, the recent performance of the imitation silk series is better than other products, and downstream procurement It is mostly used for next year’s spring and summer orders. Among them, chiffon, hemp, and smooth crepe are all shipped in large quantities. Especially after hot stamping, printing, creasing, etc., the cloth surface shows a different style. The downstream purchases are mostly used for spring and summer production. Women’s fashion. In addition, the performance of imitation memory orders was also better than that in the previous period, with domestic and foreign salesTrade orders are placed. It is understood that the inventory in the weaving market has dropped slightly in recent days compared with the previous period, and the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area is about 37 days.
No matter what, as the end of the year approaches, the market is ushering in a small wave of “market trends” ”, which has more or less boosted the upstream and downstream markets, and also increased confidence in next year’s market! </p
