After two days of silence, polyester filament began a new round of rise, with POY being the most prominent: on the 24th, POY Increased by 30 yuan; on the 25th, POY increased by 40 yuan…
Polyester filament has risen again. The main reason is that the cost side PTA has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two days. The rise of PTA was still encouraged by the upstream PX: on the 24th, PX transactions were advanced due to the holiday, and the intraday price increased by US$15/ton.
, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories have risen sharply to around 120%-140%, and some higher production and sales have reached 200% or even 300% levels.
This means that weaving manufacturers are preparing for this Pay the price increase! Regardless of whether there is speculation in the upstream price increase, weaving manufacturers have seized the last wave of market trends at the end of the year.
Weaving manufacturers suddenly increase their efforts to purchase polyester yarn Big, the most important thing is where the demand is. On the one hand, towards the end of the month, weaving manufacturers have a wave of replenishment operations. In addition to regular replenishment, stocking before the year has basically begun. It is understood that weaving manufacturers are stocking up on 1-2 months’ supply. At this time point, naturally, Strengthened the surge in production and sales. On the other hand, the market situation has improved slightly in recent times. Simulated silk, four-way stretch, and peach skin velvet have all improved to varying degrees. Weaving manufacturers are rushing to stock up for the new year. The looms are operating at high loads, and the demand for polyester yarns is still there. existing.
However, happiness comes and goes quickly. On December 25, the production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 40-60%.
As far as polyester filament itself is concerned, currently, the inventory of polyester filament is at a low level in half a year;
Many polyester manufacturers have equipment maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival;
And some time ago, chemical fiber companies implemented a production limit and price guarantee plan, limiting production to 30 during the Spring Festival %;
These have become the reasons for the recent high price of polyester filament, but the production and sales of polyester filament are still only a “one-day trip”.
WHY?
From cost From a comprehensive perspective
PTA will have oversupply and insufficient cost support
On the 25th, a new 1.2 million-ton PTA device in Xinjiang was officially put into operation and is expected to produce products during the New Year’s Day.
In 2019, PTA production continues to rise. Xinfengming’s 2.2 million-ton PTA unit, which has attracted market attention, has been put into operation, adding another heavyweight to PTA production. , the supply side is expanding. But it is much more than that. In addition to the Xinjiang PTA device being put into operation, in December there are also plans to put into production 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical and 1.2 million tons of Xinjiang Zhongtai Kunyu PTA. Although there is no news of putting into production at present, it does not rule out the possibility of production. By the end of the year, all these production capacities will be put into operation and will enter the trial operation stage. If these 4.8 million tons of PTA production capacity can be successfully put into production, then PTA production capacity will be released in the first quarter of next year and supply pressure will increase.
If the supply pressure of PTA appears, the price will also Will continue to fall, and with insufficient cost support, it is difficult for polyester filament prices to rise. Amid serious concerns among market participants about PTA production capacity, there is considerable room for decline in both price and production and sales of polyester filament.
But whether it is the polyester filament itself or the cost-side PTA, the lifeblood of polyester yarn is ultimately in the hands of the terminal weaving manufacturers. Do the weaving manufacturers have the money? Buying polyester is the most important thing.
From the demand side
Weaving Manufacturers have insufficient funds and limited replenishment
Production and sales have plummeted. The most important thing is that weaving manufacturers have limited replenishment and the regular replenishment operation has ended at the end of the month. At the same time, although the work on accounts receivable has begun near the end of the year, the overall economic environment this year is not good. Most weaving manufacturers find it difficult to collect payments. A person in charge once revealed that, for example, a final payment of 300,000 yuan, the market was good last year It doesn’t matter to many customers at that time.�, it is relatively easy to give money, and you can get it within a month, but this year, their customers have no money to give them. It may take two or three months to get back the 300,000 arrears, and larger amounts will be paid out before the year. It’s not easy to get back.
Funds are limited and must be allocated rationally. Weaving manufacturers will not spend more funds to stockpile raw materials. Although polyester manufacturers generally increase prices after the new year, But after all, this year has been so bad that weaving manufacturers are afraid, and we still don’t know what the market will be like next year. If we make a mistake and stock up too much, we will lose a lot of money.
Of course, the most important thing is that as the end of the year approaches and the market is unlikely to improve significantly, polyester filament yarn prices can continue to rise, and weaving manufacturers can seize the last wave of market trends. Everything else, whether it is PTA’s overcapacity or weaving manufacturers’ capital collection issues, is a matter for later.
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