A once-in-a-century stock market meltdown is now commonplace.
On March 18, the U.S. stock market, bond market and commodity market fell at the same time. The S&P 500 index fell 7% during the session, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism again, and market trading was suspended for 15 minutes. This is the fifth circuit breaker in the history of the US stock market and the fourth circuit breaker since March this year.
Trump, who saves the market but not people, It has caused great damage to global financial stability and triggered the circuit breaker mechanism in the stock markets of many countries. Netizens invented a term called “Trump Circuit Breaker” and the resulting “Trump Great Depression.”
The polyester market encounters another crisis Attack
The new crown epidemic has punctured the already fragile bubble economy, and global panic has increased. The U.S. stock market crashed four times in January, causing international crude oil to suffer another heavy setback. As of the close of trading on the 18th, WTI April crude oil futures closed down $6.58, or 24.42%, to $20.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for May delivery closed down $3.85, or 13.4%, to $24.88 per barrel.
The cost of crude oil collapsed, giving The polyester raw material market has been hit hard.
In terms of PTA, On the 19th, the PTA futures of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange fell below the limit less than an hour after opening. The main 2005 contract closed at 3,452 yuan/ton, which was a significant drop of 182 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. tons, a decrease of 5.01%.
Ethylene glycol,DaCom MEG futures fell to the limit, with the main 2005 contract closing at 3,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 188 yuan/ton, or 4.97%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
Since the plunge of crude oil, PTA and ethylene glycol futures have been following the decline, and there is a serious lack of upward momentum. On the 17th, the Saudi Energy Ministry once again stated that it will increase crude oil exports to a record high of more than 10 million barrels per day starting in May. It can be seen that the crude oil price war will not end in the short term. Crude oil prices will continue to bottom out. With insufficient cost support, the probability of the polyester raw material market following the decline is very high.
Polyester filament–only one word: fall!
As the prices of crude oil and polyester raw materials continue to fall, the price of polyester filament has continued to decline. As of now, the price of polyester filament FDY products is around 6,500 yuan/ton, the price of POY products is around 5,950 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY products is around 8,000 yuan/ton.
Crude oil prices have hit bottom again and again, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have continued to fall. The cost surface has collapsed. It is difficult for polyester filament prices to break even, and the market outlook is still mainly weak.
Is foreign trade finished? !
Foreign trade is over! –Numerous textile people have been deeply worried recently. The epidemic broke out on a large scale abroad, and the situation in Europe was the most severe. Coupled with the collapse of crude oil prices and the continued decline in polyester product prices, Boss Bu began to panic.
A cloth boss with more than 300 looms lamented helplessly: “Foreign trade is over! My customers in Keqiao are all engaged in foreign trade, and now all European orders have been cancelled.” We can still ship some more goods now, but the orders cannot keep up. If the situation continues like this, we really can’t sustain it. If the market goes bad next month, we may have to shut down some machines.”
At the same time, another cloth boss with more than 200 looms also said that it has been difficult to receive recent orders, the market situation is not good, and the costs are relatively high, and he plans to shut down some machines in the middle of next month.
Boss Bu has plans to shut down the machine. On the one hand, the market situation is not good and the financial pressure is huge; on the other hand, there is concern that the inventory of gray fabrics will rise sharply in the future, while the looms are continuing to produce. By then, the overcapacity situation may be worse than last year, and the inventory will be even less valuable.
Judging from the sample companies surveyed by China Silk City Network, the current gray fabric inventory of weaving companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 38-39 days, which is much higher than the same period last year. level. Judging from previous surveys, most companies said that the resumption of work after the new year is not good. Their own weaving companies have a lot of inventory before the Chinese New Year holiday. Now the domestic epidemic situationThe epidemic has led to insufficient foreign trade demand and unsatisfactory domestic demand. However, the number of looms on the market has not decreased. If things go on like this, weaving enterprises’ gray fabric inventories are likely to be on an upward trend in the future.
The price of gray fabric will be further reduced
Insufficient demand and increased production capacity will have the most direct impact, in addition to the increase in gray fabric inventories, the lowering of gray fabric prices. In fact, since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous decline in polyester filament prices, negative macro news, and shrinking terminal demand, the price of gray fabrics has dropped somewhat compared with a year ago.
Taking glossy satin 75D as an example, the price was around 2.7 yuan/meter a year ago, and is currently down to 2.1 yuan/meter; 210 years ago, polyester taffeta It was about 1.6 yuan/meter, and now it has dropped to 1.4 yuan/meter; before the card was broken, it could be sold for about 5 yuan/meter, but now it is only around 4.2 yuan/meter… And it is not just the price that has been driven down. It’s these gray cloths.
Judging from the current market situation, demand Already seriously insufficient. In terms of foreign trade, Europe has been “killed”, and South Korea and Japan are not doing well either. In terms of domestic demand, end-use clothing companies have placed numerous goods on hold, causing both volume and price to fall. At the same time, homogeneous competition among various textile companies is serious. Under many unfavorable conditions, the price of gray fabrics will inevitably be another “fight”.
This is the hottest “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” season, but Boss Bu has already had the idea of shutting down the machine, which makes him feel a little sad.
It is said that 2019 is the worst year in the textile industry, but I never expected that the beginning of 2020 will be so difficult. From a macro perspective, crude oil prices may reach a further bottom, and the foreign COVID-19 epidemic will not end soon, and the global economy may be facing a crisis. Can the textile people who survived the financial crisis in 2008 survive 2020 again?
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