This Monday (December 7), PTA, ethylene glycol, and short fiber futures rose sharply.
As of 15:00, the final closing quotation of the PTA futures 2101 contract was 3638 points, an increase of 110 points or 3.12% from the previous trading day.
The final closing quotation of the ethylene glycol futures 2101 contract was 3968 points, an increase of 151 points from the previous trading day. The increase was 3.96%.
The final closing quotation of the short fiber futures 2105 contract was 6248 points, an increase of 208 points from the previous trading day. is 3.44%.
Polyester production and sales have also experienced continuous outbreaks.
On December 4, the average production and sales of polyester filament in polyester factories was as high as 200-300%, and then the price of polyester filament also began to rise slightly by 50-100 yuan/ton.
On December 7, polyester factories increased production again, and the average production and sales of polyester filament reached 100-200%.
In recent months, especially after November, due to the continuous recovery of the domestic economy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased The sounds came and went.
In the textile industry, due to the sharp rise in prices of industrial raw materials such as CPL and PA66, nylon and spandex are in the forefront The price of time has also skyrocketed. However, while the prices of nylon and spandex are soaring, the price of polyester filament is “sitting firmly on the Diaoyutai” with no sign of an upward breakthrough, and has even declined to a certain extent.
This time the polyester market has experienced fluctuations, and futures such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and staple fiber have all surged. , does it imply that the rising trend of chemical raw materials has finally hit the polyester industry chain?
Crude oil cost support
Currently, international oil prices are still on an upward trend. After the close of last Saturday, Brent oil prices It has exceeded $49, and U.S. crude oil has also exceeded $46, both hitting new highs since March. Now international oil prices have been rising for five consecutive weeks. Who would have thought that in early November, international oil prices fell below 40 US dollars, and now they are close to 50 US dollars in just one month.
And with the tightening situation in the Middle East and the continued improvement of the international economic environment, there is still room for international oil prices to rise in the future. For various products in the polyester industry chain represented by PTA, it is not surprising that the price of bread has increased as flour is expensive.
Device maintenance
Recently, News about PTA device maintenance comes one after another:
A 4.5 million ton device in South China is scheduled to shut down for maintenance starting from the 17th of this month and is expected to last for about 25 days;
A 1.1 million-ton PTA device in South China is scheduled to shut down for maintenance this weekend and is expected to last for about 20 days;
A 1.4-million-ton PTA device in East China will reduce production by 50% from today and is expected to maintain 3 sky.
4.5 million tons plus 1.1 million tons plus half of 1.4 million tons is 700,000 tons. The total maintenance capacity is as high as 6.4 million tons, and this is only the recently disclosed PTA Equipment maintenance plan, there may be more capacity for maintenance in the future.
At the same time, many polyester manufacturers have also taken risk-averse measures to reduce production and take holidays in advance.
Good news about vaccines
More Important benefits come from the end market. In recent months, good news about vaccines has been coming, which has led to the expected recovery of the end consumer market. This week, Russia and the United Kingdom officially started vaccination, and France, Canada and other countries also plan to start vaccination in the next few weeks. This may truly help mankind completely control the spread of the new crown epidemic and inject sufficient confidence into the market.
Affected by this news, downstream weaving companies concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and polyester production and sales experienced a periodic explosion, which gave a strong boost to the rise of various products in the polyester industry chain. If the vaccine can truly achieve the expected effect, the current price increase in the entire polyester industry chain may be just the beginning.
High inventory and high production capacity constraints,
The price of polyester products is difficult to reach the sky high
But at the same time, we must also see that due to the epidemic, the polyester industry chain is facing severe inventory problems. Take PTA as an example , PTA’s social inventory on December 4, 2020 was approximately 2.49 million tons. Compared with the same period in previous years, its social inventory has almost doubled.
In addition, 2020-2021 is a big year for the commissioning of PTA equipment. According to the PTA commissioning plan, the planned new production capacity of PTA in 2020 will reach 14.9 million tons, while in 2021 there will be 14.1 million tons. Ten thousand tons of PTA will be put into production. At the end of 2019, the effective domestic PTA production capacity was about 57 million tons/year (excluding annual non-operational production capacity). Therefore, in the next one or two years, the situation of PTA overcapacity will not be alleviated, but will The situation is getting worse.
Under the pressure of high production capacity and high inventory, the price increase of PTA may be relatively limited, and it is difficult to “jump into the sky” like other chemical raw materials. And polyester Other products in the industry chain are similar to PTA and are more or less faced with the problems of high inventory and rapid expansion of production capacity, which will also suppress the price of polyester raw materials to a certain extent.
But no matter what, with the support of many favorable factors at this stage, there is a high probability that various products in the polyester industry chain will still be on the rise in the future.</p
