The difficult year of 2020 has finally passed, and the time has arrived in 2021. Textile companies have also reached the end of the year, and have gradually entered the last wave of stocking up before the holidays.
In late December, China Silk City Network conducted a survey on textile companies’ holiday and year-end stockpiling of raw material plans, with more than 200 textile people participating.
The results show that the holidays of textile companies are concentrated in January, accounting for 3/4 of the companies surveyed, with the most companies having holidays in late January.
Textile companies usually stock up on some raw materials before the holidays. It can be said that January will be the time for textile companies to stock up. When the market is concentrated, how will the market change?
Since November, as good news about vaccines continues to come, international oil prices have begun to rise one after another, and the prices of upstream raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol have also continued to rise, driving the price of polyester yarns to continue to rise. rise.
Faced with the rising prices of polyester filament, Boss Bu has rarely bought into it. After entering December , the average production and sales performance of polyester factories was good, with multiple over 100 market prices.
In the first three quarters of this year, polyester filament yarns also experienced several waves of rise, but they often did not last for a while. There will be a correction in the price of polyester yarn, but after November, the polyester yarn changed from the normal state and showed a trend of “only rising but not falling”. After several wait-and-sees, cloth bosses began to buy silk with confidence and boldness.
Judging from the above performance, after the textile companies experienced a difficult 2020, it seems that they have started to “buy up rather than buy down” for raw materials again. However, after asking several textile companies, , only to find that the situation is not so optimistic.
Mr. Zhang, the head of a medium-sized weaving company with nearly 500 looms, said that today’s raw material prices are too high. The price of commonly used polyester yarn has increased from more than 5,000 yuan per ton. It has risen to more than 7,000 yuan per ton now, but at the same time, the price of gray cloth has not increased much. There is no money to be made in this situation. If raw material prices remain at such a high level in the future, silk stockings may not be possible at the end of the year.
Mr. Liu, the person in charge of a weaving company with 100 looms, said that at the end of last year, the company stocked up on raw materials for two months as usual. However, when the epidemic hit at the beginning of this year, raw materials were in short supply. Prices were cut in half, and the raw materials I stocked up last year suddenly lost hundreds of thousands. The price of raw materials has risen so much now, and it is possible that it will fall back early next year, so I won’t buy it yet.
It can be seen that the textile people at the end of the year are not too “cold” about the price of raw materials. In the survey at the beginning of the article, more than 2/3 of the textile people said that they would stock less or no more this year than in the past. Stocking up on raw materials is also caused by a combination of factors.
First of all, general textile companies have relatively fixed strategies for buying silk. In previous years, they stocked up in large quantities before the holidays. Textile companies also bought large amounts of silk at the end of last year, but all suffered huge losses at the beginning of this year. A new year has come, and it is unknown whether we will continue to buy silk like in previous years.
Second, after experiencing the wave of gains that began in November, although the price of polyester filament is now lower than in previous years, it has corrected a lot and has exceeded the price of many textile people. The psychological expectation of “buy, buy, buy” is in your mind.
Third, during the visit to the market, many textile people said that it is particularly difficult to collect payment this year. It is estimated that it will be difficult to get all the payment back at the end of the year. This is from a financial perspective. This restricts textile companies from hoarding raw materials.
Finally, news of recent virus mutations continues to spread. Although the vaccine is being distributed, it will not be fully effective until at least the end of the second quarter of 2021. Before that, the terminal demand It is difficult to see a significant recovery, and if terminal demand does not pick up, it will be difficult for polyester prices to have support to rise.
Overall, driven by upstream raw materials and year-end stockpiling, the price of polyester filament is very likely to continue to rise. However, in the face of rising prices, Fabric bosses may not stock up on large quantities of silk because of this, but some fabric bosses choose to be “averse” from stocking up because of the “lessons learned” in 2020; of course, on the other hand, unless the epidemic gets out of control again, polyester silk wants to be like 2020 again. It is also difficult to have such a big drop at the beginning of the year.
Faced with such market expectations, cloth bosses need to make the most suitable choice according to their own circumstances. </p
