Recently, the polyester raw material market has been rising and falling in a hurry:
At the closing of the domestic futures market on March 2, most commodity futures fell, PTA The price limit fell, with ethylene glycol falling by more than 6% and crude oil falling by more than 4%.
On March 4, U.S. refined oil inventories plummeted, and OPEC+ also had the possibility of maintaining the current scale of production cuts until April. International oil prices rebounded strongly. The trend of polyester raw materials in the night session was warm and volatile, but at this time, the cash flow of polyester filament has expanded significantly, and the recent production and sales data have been deserted. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will show a stable trend in the short term.
In early March, the prices of polyester raw materials began to gradually fall, and polyester filament yarn also stopped rising. Although it is common for raw materials to rise and fall, it may fall today and rise again tomorrow. Then the downstream textile bosses and others How do you see it?
I am worried about rising prices and worrying about falling prices. I dare not take orders or produce!
For textile companies, what they fear most is not the rise or fall of prices, but price instability. “If you buy raw materials at a high price and the price drops when they are produced, it will be like a punch in the stomach.” said an old master who has been engaged in textiles for more than ten years.
As for the future trend of raw materials and fabrics, he plans to wait and see while clearing inventory. “If the price of raw materials continues to rise, we will not dare to do it. Production will stop until the end of March at most, and then start clearing inventory.” Part of the funds will be withdrawn.”
Another cloth boss also said helplessly: “We didn’t stock a lot of raw materials before the new year. Who would have thought that the price of raw materials would go crazy at the beginning of the new year. The orders we received were all negotiated before. The price, but now that the raw materials have increased so crazily, we can only ask our customers to increase the price. Many customers do not accept it, and we have no choice. After all, we are old customers who have cooperated with us for many years, so we can only make some concessions from both parties. Originally The cloth that needs to be increased by 5 cents, the old customer’s price is only increased by 3 cents.”
It seems that the rise and fall of raw materials has brought a lot of troubles to cloth bosses. Especially some companies that make low-end fabrics and have high inventories have weak bargaining power. When raw materials rise, the price of gray fabrics does not dare to rise. When prices fall, they frequently suffer from price cuts.
Clothing retailers in Europe and the United States are cutting spring orders
Despite recent The price increase momentum of raw materials and fabrics is very good, but from the trade side, there are not many orders. “Our gray fabric business has been very hot recently, and the quantity for the whole year is basically guaranteed, but there are not many orders in trade. , it can only last for one month at most, and customers are hesitant to place orders,” said a trader.
Another trader is also worried: “I think the foreign trade market will not be very good in the first half of the year. First of all, the epidemic has brought great consequences to foreign retail companies. However, the market continues to be hot during this period, so As a result, the order stocking operation for raw materials and gray fabrics was better than expected, and market orders were issued one after another, but many of them were traders stocking up, not manufacturers directly placing orders.”
According to a survey by McKinsey Consulting Company , this crisis has caused companies in the textile and clothing industry to lose 30% of sales and 90% of profits globally. The arrival of vaccines gave the industry hope late last year, but the slow pace of vaccinations is likely to prolong the pain for the textile and clothing industry until at least this summer.
According to Reuters, clothing retailers in Europe and the United States are sitting on excess inventory and are cutting spring orders!
Some traders believe that the current wave of orders is actually an overdraft of subsequent orders. “Even if vaccination gradually becomes popular, the recovery of market demand in Europe and the United States will still be relatively slow. We are more worried about the orders during this period. In fact, it is an overdraft for subsequent orders, which will be even more difficult during the off-season.” said a trader doing European and American orders.
The entrance of the dyeing factory is full of gray fabrics, but how many of them are real orders?
From the perspective of dyeing factories, the current extension of delivery time is not entirely due to demand. According to a dyeing factory follow-up: ” Now many of the goods entering the warehouse are market goods. He is not in a hurry to produce, which is equivalent to using the dyeing factory as a warehouse. In addition, there are not enough manpower and the production capacity is very low, so it creates the illusion that the dyeing factory is doing a booming business, but some order goods The delivery date is very urgent, so these customers can only find ways to ask the dyeing factory to arrange production in advance.”
</o ; Priority will be given to dyeing market products because market products are less prone to errors, are large in volume, and have high profits. Therefore, market goods generally do not need to be pressed into the warehouse, but orders need to be pressed into the warehouse, and the delivery time will also be extended.
Editor’s Note
From the perspective of the overall environment, it will take some time for the textile and apparel market to return to the state before the epidemic. At the same time, the epidemic The recurrence and mutation of the virus are still a “ticking time bomb” that hinders the market from improving. Domestic and foreign trade markets have not fully blossomed.It will take time to confirm whether the Golden Three peak season can drive orders to continue to improve!
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