Recently, India, where the epidemic is completely out of control, has affected the hearts of people all over the world. According to data released by the Indian Ministry of Health on the 25th, the country’s There were 349,691 new confirmed cases, and the number of new cases in a single day has exceeded 300,000 for 4 consecutive days. The Indian government predicted on the 25th that the country’s new wave of COVID-19 epidemic may reach its peak in mid-May, with as many as 500,000 new confirmed cases every day.
We are worried that the epidemic in India will affect the global epidemic At the same time of prevention and control, we textile people seem to have seen some familiar scenes. In September and October last year, the epidemic broke out in Southeast Asia, South Asia and other countries. Factories were unable to maintain normal production and delivery was delayed. A large number of textile orders returned to China, especially orders from India. A familiar scene has reappeared this year, and the outbreak in India this time far exceeds that of September last year. So will the market return to last year’s order resurgence scenario again? It’s difficult and the opportunity is unlikely to arise.
The situation in India is different
At the beginning of the outbreak last year, India experienced a period of relatively high growth in cases. Slow times, but things quickly took a turn for the worse. As of October 18, 2020, India had 61,000 new cases in a single day, second only to the United States at the time. India began a nationwide lockdown on March 24, 2020, and did not enter a lengthy phased unblocking process until the second half of the year.
During the nationwide lockdown in India, a large number of jobs were forced to shut down. One month after the blockade, a survey released by the Garment Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI) showed that about 31% of domestic garment factories in India may close down and about 2.5 million workers may lose their jobs. This had a huge impact on India’s textile industry at that time. A large number of small and medium-sized textile companies closed down and millions of textile workers lost their jobs. And once workers are shut down, it will be difficult to resume production.
In this case, India’s textile order production capacity has naturally weakened significantly, and orders from Europe and the United States cannot be completed in time, which has led to many European and American companies to cancel their orders. Moved to China. But the current situation in India is completely different. On April 23, Indian Prime Minister Modi repeatedly emphasized in a televised speech that although India is currently facing the challenge of the epidemic, he also promised that he would never adopt a strict blockade policy. In addition, Modi also called on capital not to flee from India, and the government will never close the country because of the epidemic.
When India does not close the country, All kinds of factories will naturally not fall into a state of complete stagnation. If textile orders can maintain production, then the conditions for order transfer will not be established.
Textile orders are issued at different times
The outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asia last year caused various textile orders to The time for domestic reshoring is September and October, which happens to be the peak season for the textile market. Especially during the first half of last year, when the global epidemic was raging, global market demand rebounded after the second half of the year. There were relatively many textile orders during that period. Countries such as India are in the midst of the epidemic. In order to be able to produce on schedule, a large number of orders can only be transferred to my country, which has strong epidemic prevention and control.
However, although the current epidemic situation in India is more severe than last year, it has avoided the peak season in March in the first half of the year. At the same time, global textile production has not increased in the past half year. There is a large-scale stagnation. There is not an excessive backlog of orders, but a slight excess of demand. Therefore, the volume of textile orders in the recent stage is relatively small, and even as the summer off-season is approaching, it is still decreasing. The orders that can be placed are basically produced in various countries, and the remaining few orders lack the significance of transfer.
In addition, last year’s epidemic situation worsened at the same time in India and many Southeast Asian countries. However, at present, only India’s epidemic is out of control, and several Southeast Asian countries are relatively optimistic. In addition, various Southeast Asian countries are also textile powerhouses. Even if Indian orders are transferred, they are more likely to flow to these countries.
The epidemic in India is out of control, to a certain extent It will definitely affect the production of textile and clothing, but it will be difficult to bring orders back to the country like last year, and it may even affect the orders of some domestic textile companies. At present, domestic textile traders all have more or less Indian customers. They import fabrics from China and return them to India to produce clothing and then export them to Europe and the United States. Last year, India imported 24.3 billion yuan of various textiles from China. If the production of these Indian textile and apparel companies is affected and orders shrink, fabric imports will inevitably decrease. In other words, not only did the return of orders we were expecting not come, but the orders on hand may be further reduced.
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