Polyester filament price reduction has always been a point of concern to the market, but the regular price reduction promotions of polyester filament that have continued since April seem to be difficult. It has received too much attention from the market. The most obvious manifestation of this is that downstream weaving companies lack enthusiasm for purchasing polyester yarns with reduced prices. In the past, the situation of stocking up when seeing low prices seems to be gradually decreasing.
Crude oil is bullish in the long term, and polyester sales cannot last long
“The raw materials are basically out of stock. If there are orders on hand during the price reduction promotion, I will buy more. The raw materials should fall later. The country does not allow bulk commodities to rise too much. The raw materials should not rise much, and we have to watch. Half-year market situation.”
“If we don’t stock up, the raw materials were bought at high prices before. Now they are cheaper than before, and they will definitely be cheaper in the future.”
…
Weaving companies are not willing to hoard and reserve raw materials when the price of raw materials is on promotion. The reason is that I feel that there will definitely be room for decline in polyester prices in the future. However, Goldman Sachs recently predicted that Brent prices will reach US$80/barrel and WTI prices will reach US$77/barrel in the third quarter. Some institutions even predict that crude oil prices may reach or even exceed US$100 per barrel in the second half of the year.
As the upstream raw material for polyester yarn, crude oil The price trend has important guiding significance for polyester filament. The rising cost of crude oil is unlikely to allow polyester filament price reduction. It is even doubtful how long the current weekly promotion can last. After all, at the beginning of the promotion, crude oil prices were still hovering around US$60/barrel, but now they have risen to around US$70/barrel.
Lack of orders and lack of stocking requirements for raw materials
Raw materials Price changes are indeed an important indicator of whether a weaving company purchases stock, but more importantly, it depends on whether orders are sufficient and whether inventory is too high.
“The recent order situation is average, the overall volume is decreasing, and now we are starting to make inventory. The overall orders are not as good as in previous years, but they only increased by about 10% compared with last year during the epidemic. ”
“The order situation is average. The orders we are making now were all placed a while ago. There have been no new orders recently. The large orders mentioned in the previous proofs have also been delayed. The orders are generally not as good as In previous years, especially large orders.”
With the gradual arrival of the off-season market, reduced orders have basically become the norm. In the absence of orders from textile companies, the factory can only be in a state of production inventory. After experiencing inventory backlogs and tight liquidity last year, most companies need to be more cautious this year. Even if the price of raw materials falls, if orders do not improve, they are still unwilling to accumulate too much funds on raw materials or fabrics. Buying on demand and using as needed is a common practice among weaving companies.
However, the recent textile market is not calm. Some fabrics still have peak seasons, but the overall impact on textile companies is limited.
The best-selling varieties are single and the companies benefiting are limited
There are indeed many hot-selling products on the market recently, especially nylon, four-way elastic, high-elastic pongee, etc. Most of these hot-selling products are concentrated in autumn and winter fabrics. This is mainly because some downstream traders are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year and have begun to stock up on fabrics at low prices. However, due to the limitations of fabric types, not all companies can enjoy this wave of hot-selling dividends, or not all of them.
According to the person in charge of a Chunya textile manufacturing company, the elastic ones are all good recently, but the others are not very popular. However, because the company only produces Chunya Spinning, so basically you can’t feel this peak season. Another company that mainly produces elastic and plaid pongee has the same feeling. Recently, 50D high-elastic pongee has been very popular. It sells well because it is cheap and can be used to make autumn and winter windbreaker jackets. Other twill and plaid pongee fabrics are relatively poor.
The situation is similar in dyeing factories. Since May, printing and dyeing factories have basically been in the process of cooling down. The queues that were common in April have disappeared in ordinary dyeing factories. However, in some dyeing factories specializing in the production and processing of four-way elastic and nylon, the peak season is still going on, and queues are still very common.
After all, the number of companies producing nylon and four-way elastic in the market is limited, so naturally it is impossible for the majority to benefit from it. The status of most companies is not only that they currently have a limited number of orders in hand, but also that it is difficult to guarantee orders in June and July. According to several research companies, they currently do very little proofing and staking, which means that it is difficult to place new orders in the future. Textile companies are generally not confident about the market outlook.��, some companies have even made plans to reduce production and start operations.
But several polyester production and sales in May It seems that the enthusiasm for stocking in the weaving market is improving. Weavers are saying that they are not stocking up, while production and sales are gradually increasing. Especially during the price reduction promotion last Friday, the average production and sales of polyester factories reached 500%-800%, and some factories reached 1,000%. With the use of global vaccines, it is only a matter of time before the economy improves. A rise in crude oil prices and an improvement in the textile market in the second half of the year are both high-probability events. However, there may not be several opportunities for raw material price reductions in the second half of the year.
</p
