On September 14, polyester filament prices rose again. The price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Tongxiang increased by 50 yuan today; the price of polyester yarn from another large factory in Tongxiang increased by 50-100 yuan today; the price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Xiaoshan increased by some specifications today; the price of polyester yarn from another POY factory in Xiaoshan increased by some specifications. 50 yuan;…
In fact, as early as the 13th, some manufacturers had raised FDY by 100 yuan, and now some manufacturers have raised prices for the second time. Although the two increases are not large, for polyester yarns that are on sale every week, the price increase is good news!
01
Crude oil trend is warmer, polyester yarn has strong support from the cost end
Polyester The rise in filament yarn is mainly due to the warmer trend of raw materials and the decline in the supply of equipment and maintenance. Specifically, affected by the Libyan issue and Hurricane Ida in the United States, WTI crude oil futures prices once again exceeded $70 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose above $73.5 per barrel. Oil prices once again exceeded US$70, showing an upward trend, which not only gave strong support to the cost end of polyester filament, but also boosted market confidence.
OPEC released a monthly report stating that demand for crude oil is expected to be stronger in 2021 and 2022 due to rising global fuel consumption and production disruptions in other regions. In addition, if the Libyan issue is not resolved in the short term, it will undoubtedly cause global crude oil supply to become tense again. Therefore, crude oil will currently provide strong support for the price increase of polyester filament.
02
Restricting production has a good effect of ensuring price, and the price of polyester yarn is very high
On the other hand, yesterday’s article already mentioned the issue of production reduction in polyester plants. Today, another new device has been shut down, and the scope of production reduction is expanding. A polyester plant with an annual output of 200,000 tons in Jiangyin Sanfang Lane has been shut down today. It mainly produces polyester filament, and the restart time has not yet been determined; some production lines of Xiaoshan Hengyi polyester filament have reduced production; Suqian Yida polyester staple fiber plant has reduced production to 5 The current production capacity is 600 tons per day, and the restart time has not yet been determined.
With the release of the news of polyester factory production cuts, downstream weaving companies are stimulated to purchase, and the inquiry atmosphere is heating up, further boosting the market. On the 13th, the production and sales of mainstream factories were between 40% and 60%, and the production and sales of some factories could be flat. Compared with the average production and sales of only 40% per week, there has been a certain improvement. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 18-28 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 15-24 days, FDY inventory is around 18-20 days, and DTY inventory is around 18-28 days. to about 20-28 days. Although the current polyester inventory pressure is still high, the manufacturer’s purpose of limiting production and protecting prices has been achieved.
03
Polyester filament has risen for two consecutive days, opening a rising channel or accumulating strength for this week’s promotion
Polyester filament has risen for two consecutive days, which means that it will open a rising channel or is it for Promotional buildup for this week? News broke on Monday that there will be a polyester sale on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. But not only were there no sales on Tuesday, there was also a price increase. If the polyester factory chooses to reduce inventory at low prices, then once there is a promotion tomorrow, production and sales will definitely increase explosively. Polyester stocks have further declined while production is being reduced, and this wave of destocking may have a certain effect.
Goldman Sachs Forecast: Enter After the fall, oil prices are set to rise sharply, and commodity prices are set to soar amid “increasing scarcity” across physical markets. The effect of reducing production and destocking is good. With the help of soaring oil prices, polyester filament has more room for growth in the later period. In particular, the downstream weaving market has gradually picked up after September. The woven fabrics are mainly cotton jackets and down jackets, and the knitted autumn and winter warm fabrics are mainly improved. Some models have started to produce fabrics for next spring, so the market demand for polyester yarns is also increasing. Gradually improve.
Today’s production and sales are still light, and “buying up” has long failed. Weaving companies are naturally waiting for the next promotion. Although the market is improving, it is slow and not as good as expected. Market confidence is still lacking. In addition, the inventory of gray fabrics is high, and the cash flow in the hands of weaving bosses is tight. As long as the raw materials are enough to maintain normal production, there is no harm in waiting for promotions.
In the short term, it is difficult for terminal demand to reverse. Under such circumstances, the promotion of polyester factories may continue for some time. In the long run, the price of polyester filament is high, which will lay the foundation for the subsequent peak season outbreak of the gray fabric market and the price increase.
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