“We received a lot of orders in June this year, but many of them were placed in 9Customers who place orders in June have placed their orders in June this year. I am a little worried about orders in the second half of this year.”This is what a cloth boss who makes down jacket fabrics said to the editor during a survey last week.
Order forwarding has become a trend
As early as May, CCTV reported that the Yiwu area had begun to receive orders from Christmas areas. Since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, overseas merchants who cannot come to China have watched new products and inquired about prices through online videos.
However, due to the logistics congestion in the past two years, the delivery date of the goods was very urgent. Some goods did not arrive at the port in time, resulting in unsalable products and causing losses to a certain extent. In addition, the domestic epidemic in the first half of this year has also greatly affected the delivery date of orders.
The annual consumption of many conventional products is basically predictable, so many customers choose to place orders in advance. It can be said that moving orders forward has become a trend in the current textile market.
Advance overdraft market
However, orders for the second half of the year were canceled in advance, and demand was released in advance. The result may be a decrease in orders in the second half of the year.
Due to factors such as inflation, the COVID-19 epidemic, and the rapid development of Vietnam’s textile industry, the number of orders this year has shown a clear downward trend compared with last year. Although some orders have been advanced, judging from the feelings of cloth bosses, The number of orders in the first half of the year was actually fewer, and profits were also lower. This was determined by the macroeconomic environment.
But under such circumstances, the number of orders in the second half of the year may show a downward trend compared with the first half of the year. With the experience and lessons learned in the first half of the year, it is unlikely that the domestic epidemic will break out like in the first half of the year. However, after all, some orders have been overdrawn. Coupled with the increasingly severe international economic situation, the market in the second half of the year will Not optimistic.
The storm is coming
Recently, the editor read a book called “Ten Years of Reincarnation(From Asia to the Global Financial Crisis )》, talking about the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to2008 What happened during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the author was an eyewitness to financial supervision at that time, so he gives a unique perspective.
Judging from today’s international economic situation alone, the situation is even worse than then. In addition to the same series of chain reactions caused by overheated investment as before, the global COVID-19 epidemic and the The crazy money printing of US dollars is something that people have never encountered before (the money printed by the United States in the past two years is 80% of the total money printing in history), not to mention Russia and Ukraine. The two major global grain-producing countries have gone to war before.
The impact of this has already begun to show up in the first half of the year, whether it is crude oil prices exceeding 100US dollars, or the United States8.6%The ultra-high inflation rate, the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented 75 interest rate hike, and the plummeting Japanese yen exchange rate are all visible precursors of the crisis. The intuitive feeling brought by the macroeconomics to textile companies is that raw materials are becoming more and more expensive, but fewer and fewer people are buying them.
The most important capability of an enterprise
Of course, compared with foreign countries, our country’s economic situation is relatively better and its foundation is stronger. Coupled with macro-control, the impact it will receive should not be as big as that of foreign countries. But when the overall global economy goes down, my country, as a major exporting country, will inevitably be affected to a certain extent.
At this time, the most important thing for textile companies is their ability to withstand crises.
I learned from the market that textile companies generally useAdhering to a very conservative business strategy, we basically purchase raw materials as needed. We would rather ship at low prices or reduce the operating rate than reduce inventory, in order to maintain a healthy cash flow.
In addition, according to past experience, the worse the market environment, the more bizarre things will happen. Some small loopholes that were not taken into consideration in the past can cause fatal blows if not careful, so we should try our best to make up for our shortcomings. .
The enterprise of the future is like a house. Storms are coming soon. If you do a good job of checking for leaks and filling them, if you persevere through the storms, you will see a rainbow.
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