Although it is the beginning of autumn, temperatures are still high in many places. Meteorological experts say that high temperatures in August are normal, but the intensity and duration of this year’s high temperatures are extreme. In some parts of my country, high temperatures have lasted for more than 50 days. !
PTA’s rebound may drive the industrial chain
In addition to the recent rise in temperature, crude oil has also begun to rebound, and PTA has also risen rapidly. PTA futures have risen from 5,662 yuan/ton to 5,824 yuan/ton since August 5, an increase of 162 yuan/ton; in terms of internal trading, they have also increased from 5,855 yuan/ton to 6,053 yuan/ton, an increase of 198 yuan/ton. .
The sharp increase in PTA this time is not only due to strong upstream cost support, but also due to the continued decline in its operating load. In August, new devices continued to join the maintenance team, such as Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton device, Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton device, Zhuhai BP’s 1.25 million ton device, etc., all started maintenance. In addition, there are also devices that have been under long-term maintenance and have not resumed production. Generally speaking, the operating load of PTA devices continues to fall. According to statistics, the current average operating rate of domestic PTA manufacturers is 62.2%, and it was 71.4% in early July, a month-on-month decrease of 9.2%.
In addition, downstream demand has also improved slightly. At present, domestic autumn clothing and winter equipment shipments have picked up compared with the previous period, and foreign trade orders are also accelerating. At the same time, the operating load of downstream weaving enterprises has also rebounded slightly in the short term, which has played a supporting role in the rebound of chemical fiber prices. Since August, according to the market patterns of previous years, the overall market situation in August has improved compared to July. In addition, the industry chain is currently in a stage of serious losses, and in fact, it has been unable to fall. Then, with the downstream recovery this month, the polyester industry chain will most likely usher in a new round of growth.
Weaving companies are still suffering
Of course, everything has two sides. Raw materials continue to rise, which may be the “last straw” that crushes the company. Although domestic and foreign orders are currently showing signs of slight recovery, after a long period of global consumption downturn, the pressure of overcapacity in the market cannot be effectively alleviated. For some companies that are not doing well in receiving orders, the rapid rise in raw material costs has undoubtedly increased their financial pressure. Many companies whose inventories are difficult to cash out have not had a high overall operating rate this year. Many companies in northern Jiangsu only maintain 50-60% operating rates. The operating rate, especially under the recent high temperature weather, has been directly suspended for holidays. The reason is that the inventory is too high and the capital chain is tight.
“If the market demand for the Gold, Nine and Silver Tens does not explode well, then we will continue to be cautious when starting construction. After all, the first consideration is the circulation of funds. Now the market competition is very stressful. For some large orders, old customers will lower prices and raw materials will rise. We just have to eat it ourselves.”
For weaving companies, what they hope is that the market will explode and raw materials will fall. Only in this way can they make profits while having orders. But now it is the off-season, there are insufficient orders, but we have to start work, buy high-priced raw materials, the capital chain is tight, and the pressure is huge. At the same time, due to the recent impact of public health incidents and orderly electricity consumption, the pace of market recovery will slow down in August, which will also affect the improvement of the chemical fiber industry to a certain extent.
The chemical fiber industry issued a notice the day before yesterday: Considering that the procurement cycle of some downstream enterprises has arrived, in order to facilitate customers to receive orders, polyester filament will be sold at the original price today, and the price will be gradually increased later. It is recommended that downstream customers grasp the timing of purchasing and stock up in advance before the market starts. Although this is probably just a sales strategy of chemical fiber factories, polyester yarn did rise in the later period due to cost support. At present, polyester filament prices have not shown any signs of rising, but as the market improves later, the demand-side boosting effect begins to strengthen.
</p
