The traditional peak season of “Golden Nine” has arrived, but although it has entered September, it seems that the peak season is still not in sight, but there is no need to be too anxious. Judging from the current market situation, September may be the market from weak to There is a strong transition time, and now the influence of various external factors is weakening, and the market turnaround is coming.
At the same time, the average production and sales of polyester soared to 290% yesterday, which means that polyester factories sold an average of three days of inventory a day. So what happened to cause the downstream purchasing sentiment to suddenly increase? Mainly divided into two aspects:
Costs rise temporarily, downstream purchases are pre-judged
Also on the cost side, crude oil surged by 4% yesterday. It is precisely because of the surge in crude oil and the tight supply of PTA that the PTA market soared all the way yesterday. With the boost on the cost side, weaving companies judged that polyester yarn prices are likely to rise, and there is a possibility that the price of polyester yarn will rise. Polyester manufacturers have said that they will start to increase prices once production and sales reach 300%, so they will stock up in advance.
However, last night on August 30, crude oil prices plummeted again after soaring, with a drop of more than 5%. Brent oil, which had just returned to three digits, suddenly fell to 99.31 US dollars per barrel. The main reason for this was that OPEC representatives said that discussions on production cuts were fashionable. Early, and the European and American sides said they would fight inflation at all costs and raised interest rates ahead of schedule, which directly drove down prices. Therefore, it is worth thinking about whether the price of polyester yarn can go up.
The temperature begins to drop and weaving starts to pick up
Secondly, since entering this week, the high temperature weather in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has gradually left. In terms of weaving, the start-up rate has begun to increase after the high temperature holiday. The peak season is coming. Although it may be delayed, it is still not too late to start stocking up. The reason is that weaving companies Most of them have a lot of inventory in the early stage. However, since they have been operating at low load, the inventory is within a controllable range. Therefore, it seems that there is not as much enthusiasm for stocking in August as in previous years, but in fact, compared with previous years, the current inventory of gray fabrics The stocking level has been reached and the goods are already ready.
Therefore, now that the startup rate has increased, the demand for raw materials by weaving companies will further expand. Even if it is still necessary to purchase, the purchase volume will be much larger than before. Therefore, with the increase in startups of weaving factories, the polyester production and sales data are still There will continue to be a possibility of rising higher.
After entering Jinjiu and production and sales have improved significantly, polyester production capacity is expected to increase:
First of all, the production and sales data have indeed improved significantly, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has been alleviated. Some companies with better production and sales data can destock their warehouses in about a week. In terms of inventory, according to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory in the polyester market is now concentrated at 22-27 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 23-27 days, FDY inventory is around 17-26 days, and DTY The inventory lasts for about 21-26 days. It can be seen that the average inventory of polyester has dropped by about 2 days more than before.
Secondly, due to the sluggish market, polyester prices have remained weak, and polyester factories have reduced production to protect prices. However, now various external factors have gradually weakened, and the time is approaching the peak season, and the rebound in polyester demand has also given the market a boost. A shot in the arm, the bullish atmosphere in the market gradually heated up. Therefore, destocking and low-load conditions jointly support the trend of upward adjustment of polyester factory loads.
It can be seen from this that the price of polyester yarn will not necessarily increase due to tight supply after the warehouse is removed. On the contrary, due to the atmosphere, the maintenance device that was originally intended to suppress inventory and reduce production and maintain prices may have to be restarted due to the atmosphere. , at this time, if the downstream demand fails to keep up with the production capacity after the restart of the polyester unit, the inventory of the polyester factory will rise again, resulting in a sudden decline in the price of polyester filament that was originally stable.
In short, whether the market can improve in the second half of the year still depends on the control of foreign epidemics and the temperature of this winter. However, this year’s “Golden Nine” does not seem to have much good news out so far, so at present, the “Golden Nine” is estimated It will become the transition time of the peak season, so it is expected that the price of polyester yarn will fluctuate with the cost side, but the overall price will remain stable.
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