Just now, data released last night showed that the US CPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, which was higher than expected. This means that inflation remains high and interest rates will be raised by 75 or 100 basis points next week.
It seems that everyone has overestimated the United States’ ability to suppress inflation. As the United States continues to raise interest rates, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate. Crude oil prices just rose sharply yesterday, and fell back tonight. The sharp rises and falls have left many people unpredictable. .
PTA cost-end support is limited
In July and August, as crude oil continued to rise and fall, the impact of PX supply and demand on the market gradually increased. And because the PX device maintenance situation exceeded expectations, supply was tight for a time, and domestic PX inventory fell to a low level. Therefore, PX prices have been in a very strong state.
Therefore, under this circumstance, even if the price of crude oil rises and falls sharply, the price of PTA is still relatively strong. Although the current cost-side fluctuation is still the main driving factor affecting the prices of PX and PTA, concerns about the global economic recession are still there. In addition, the price of crude oil is still relatively strong. A reexamination of the supply and demand structure shows that the cost-side support effect in the fourth quarter is relatively limited, and the possibility of short-term violent fluctuations in the market due to changes in fundamentals has increased.
Polyester stocks move downstream
Since the end of August, polyester production and sales have been basically flat. Occasionally, production and sales will exceed expectations on a few days. However, polyester factories have reported that although there is some destocking, downstream orders are generally not expected to improve substantially, even if the peak season comes. In terms of inventory, end-use textile and garments improved in the third and fourth quarters, and weaving gray fabrics need to be consumed first. It will still take time for the market to reverse. So this part of the inventory is just transferred downstream.
Moreover, due to the increase in restarts of polyester units, the rate of increase in downstream weaving startup rates is far slower than the restart rate of polyester units. Therefore, the growth rate of terminal demand is much smaller than the growth rate of supply. Polyester yarn may still encounter oversupply problems in the later period. The current polyester inventory is stable at about 30 days, but the polyester inventory on the market may be far more than that.
Judging from these news, the recent polyester yarn is definitely going downhill, but the fact is that the recent increase in polyester yarn cannot be contained, and it continues to rise. After yesterday’s price increase, today’s price continues to rise by 100 yuan/ton. It can be explained from this:
The peak season has arrived and polyester prices have risen as promised!
Polyester yarn still has cost support
Although the price of crude oil may have dropped due to interest rate hikes in the United States on the cost side, the tight supply of PX has now made it difficult for prices to fall. Therefore, in a short period of time, support from the cost side will still play a certain role, superimposing polyester yarn profits. Since the cost increase has declined, even if the crude oil price fell today (September 14), the price of polyester yarn still increased.
Market conditions have recovered somewhat
The Golden Nine has passed halfway. Although the market has not fully recovered, it can be clearly felt that the market has been much better than in the first half of the year. Many manufacturers are willing to increase the operating rate of their factories, and some product orders have also been placed. The editor has said before that September may become the transition month from the off-season in the first half of the year to the peak season in the second half of the year. Therefore, with orders placed in September and raw material prices rising, October may become the busiest month this year. In the next month, the price increase of raw materials will eventually turn into the price increase of gray cloth.
Generally speaking, the orders in the market have indeed improved significantly, but we still haven’t seen a large number of goods on the market, nor have we seen any very hot-selling products. To put it more vividly, we are now climbing a mountain. On the mountainside, if you don’t advance, you will retreat. The real turning point will appear in October! It is expected that in the short term, polyester prices will remain volatile and upward.
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