Analysis: What is the current trend of foreign trade import and export?

Analysis: What is the current trend of foreign trade import and export?

Figures released by the General Administration of Customs on the 13th showed that my country’s total import and export value in December 2008 fell by 11.1% year-on-year; of which exports fell by 2.8% and imports fell by 21.3%. Economic experts said that although import and export growth continued to decline, it was better than expected.

After maintaining a stable growth of more than 15% for 10 consecutive months, my country’s foreign trade import and export situation took a turn for the worse in November last year. The total monthly import and export value showed negative growth for the first time since October 2001; the monthly export and import growth rates were This is the first “double decline” since October 1998 (except for the months affected by the Spring Festival).

Compared with November, the monthly growth rate of total import and export value, export value and import value in December continued to decline, slowing down by 2.1 percentage points, 0.6 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points respectively.

Feng Lei, director of the Foreign Trade Office of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters: “As the international financial crisis spreads to the real economy, external demand is further reduced, and the adverse effects will gradually appear on foreign trade import and export. This trend is It is foreseeable, but the situation is not necessarily as terrible as imagined.”

Affected by the financial crisis, Asian regions such as South Korea and other places have experienced a sharp decline in exports recently. Although my country’s exports have experienced negative year-on-year growth for two consecutive months, the decline is still controlled within 3 percentage points.

“The decline in my country’s exports is better than expected. This is due to the timely adoption of a series of relatively correct measures. It is also determined by the current stage of industrialization and economic structure. The products of my country and European and American countries are relatively complementary. .” said Zhang Junsheng, director of the Information Center of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics.

In response to the accelerating spread of the international financial crisis to the real economy, our country has successively introduced measures such as increasing export tax rebates, relaxing credit, canceling or reducing tariffs since the second half of last year. In particular, it has raised the export tax rebate rate four times in a row to support Foreign trade enterprises stabilize external demand. Statistics show that policies to encourage exports have begun to show results.

Feng Lei said that my country’s export industry has formed a strong competitive advantage, export products also have obvious market competitiveness, and international market demand will still maintain a certain growth momentum. At present, we need to give full play to our own advantages, and we need to seize the opportunities hidden in the crisis.

Judging from the policy of raising the export tax rebate rate four times last year, although foreign trade growth faces unprecedented challenges, the main line behind my country’s policy adjustments has always been to adjust the industrial structure and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the foreign trade industry.

At the same time, many foreign trade companies in our country are actively responding to changes in the domestic and international environment, tapping their own development potential, optimizing product structure, increasing product added value, developing new products, exploring new markets, and further improving their competitiveness.

“However, as the impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy is still deepening and external demand is still shrinking, imports and exports are expected to remain in decline in the first half of this year. Only in the second half of the year will the international economy stop falling and stabilize.” Zhang Junsheng analyzed that.

Zhang Junsheng said that the current monetary and fiscal policies adopted by our country are already very strong, and their impact on foreign trade is gradually emerging. The top priority is to solve the problem of insufficient internal effective demand.

“After 30 years of development, our country has a solid material foundation and a relatively deep domestic market. Although imports and exports may still decline or even have negative growth, our country has the ability to respond to crises and the economy can continue to maintain steady and rapid growth. “Feng Lei said.

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