Correctly understand the current foreign trade situation
In 2008, faced with the severe challenges of rapid changes in the international economic situation, my country promptly adopted flexible and prudent economic policies, intensified macro-control efforts, and achieved stable and rapid development of foreign trade. The total import and export volume for the whole year was US$2.56 trillion, an increase of 17.8%, of which exports were US$1.43 trillion, an increase of 17.2%; imports were US$1.13 trillion, an increase of 18.5%; the trade surplus was US$2955 trillion, an increase of 12.7%.
Generally speaking, the foreign trade situation throughout the year shows four characteristics: First, the product structure is continuously optimized. The export of mechanical and electrical products for the whole year was US$822.9 billion, an increase of 17.3%; the export of high-tech products was US$415.6 billion, an increase of 13.1%. The construction of 38 science and technology trade innovation bases and 12 national automobile and parts export bases across the country is in full progress. The export of products with “two highs and one capital” is strictly controlled. The export of goods with independent brands, high technical content and high added value has increased significantly. Service trade has also achieved rapid development. Second, the regional structure continues to improve. In 2008, the growth of foreign trade in the central and western regions accelerated, and the proportion of total import and export in the country increased by 1.2 percentage points compared with 2007. Among them, the proportion of exports increased by 1.4 percentage points. Third, the diversified development of the market has been further deepened. In 2008, China’s top ten trading partners accounted for 75.8%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from 2007. Among them, the proportion of traditional trading partners such as the United States and Japan decreased by 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The proportion of trade with some emerging markets and developing countries continues to increase. Fourth, the growth gap between general trade and processing trade continues to widen. In 2008, general trade exports and imports grew by 22.9% and 33.6%, with growth rates exceeding processing trade by 13.6 and 30.9 percentage points respectively. The gap between the import and export growth rates of general trade and processing trade has widened to the largest level since joining the WTO.
Since the third quarter of last year, due to the impact of the international financial crisis and the decline in international market demand, my country’s foreign trade growth has slowed down month by month. In November, imports and exports fell by 9%, of which exports fell by 2.2%. This is the highest level since 2001. There was negative growth for the month for the first time since July this year. In December, the export decline expanded to 2.8%. The key to how to view the current foreign trade situation is to strengthen “three understandings”:
and to recognize the severe challenges brought about by the profoundly changing international economic environment. As the financial crisis continues to spread and the impact of the economic recession will continue, my country’s foreign trade development faces a more complex domestic and international environment. On the one hand, the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy continues to deepen. The IMF, banks and other institutions have lowered their expectations for economic and international trade growth this year. my country’s major export markets such as the United States, Japan and the Eurozone have all fallen into economic recession. On the other hand, trade protectionism may return. Our country has been the country that has encountered the most anti-dumping for 13 consecutive years. In the context of economic downturn, countries tend to tighten trade policies, and trade protectionism may resurface.
Second, we must realize that the development environment in which opportunities outweigh challenges has not changed. At present and in the future, the general trend of in-depth economic development will not change. The trend of economicization based on scientific and technological progress and productivity allocation will not be reversed. The degree of economic interconnection and dependence of various countries will continue to strengthen. At the same time, China will also be in a period of important strategic opportunities. The long-term economic development trend will not change and it has huge potential and strong driving force for sustainable development. First, the comprehensive national strength continues to increase, the industrial supporting system is relatively complete, the financial system is generally stable, the capital supply is abundant, the quality of the labor force continues to improve, the ability of enterprises to adapt to market and environmental changes continues to improve, and the system and mechanism for market allocation of resources are gradually improved. Second, industrialization and urbanization are accelerating, and we are in a period of rapid upgrading of industrial structure and consumption structure. The market has huge actual and potential demand. Third, the industrial chain is relatively complete, industrial supporting capabilities are strong, and the comparative advantages of traditional export products are obvious. While the income of importing countries is affected, China’s labor-intensive daily consumer goods such as textiles, clothing, footwear, bags, and furniture are of high quality and low price, and can better meet the needs of consumers. Fourth, my country’s implementation of a mutually beneficial and win-win opening strategy and its increasingly deepening multilateral and bilateral economic and trade relations have also created a good external environment for the development of foreign economic activities. At present, my country has signed 7 free trade agreements, covering 20% of my country’s total foreign trade. my country’s room for maneuver in coordinating two markets and two resources has significantly expanded. These have an important role in promoting the stable growth of foreign trade.
Third, we must realize that various measures introduced by the state will effectively support the stable growth of imports and exports. Recently, the state has successively introduced a series of major measures such as ten measures to expand domestic demand, nine measures to promote economic development in the financial sector, and three measures to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. In December last year, the State Council put forward seven opinions on maintaining stable growth of foreign trade, including increasing fiscal and tax policy support, steadily promoting the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, improving import and export financial services, and expanding the import of products in domestic demand.
In addition, in order to promote the stable growth of imports and exports, the country has also stepped up efforts in exploring emerging markets, developing service trade, and accelerating the construction of free trade zones. For example, in recent years, bilateral trade between my country and emerging markets has continued to develop rapidly. From 2003 to 2007, my country and ASEAN, South Asia, the Middle East, and ChinaThe average annual trade volume of the six major regions, including Latin America, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, increased by 35.6%, which was 7.1 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade in the same period. However, the proportion of emerging markets in my country’s foreign trade is still not high. In 2007, the above-mentioned regions accounted for only 24.9% of my country’s total foreign trade, indicating great potential for trade development. my country will support enterprises to explore emerging markets through various methods such as the Bilateral Joint Economic and Trade Committee (Jixed Committee) mechanism, giving full play to the role of business institutions stationed abroad, strengthening guidance for enterprises, and vigorously supporting enterprises to expand imports from emerging markets and increase imports from emerging markets. market investment. As another example, service trade is a new growth point for my country’s foreign trade and is of great significance to adjusting and optimizing the foreign trade structure. The state will further improve promotion policies and support service exports in key areas such as software, culture and traditional Chinese medicine. In advantageous industries such as aviation, transportation, finance, and tourism, cultivate a number of internationally competitive service trade enterprises, and actively encourage small and medium-sized service enterprises to carry out foreign exchanges and cooperation. This year, we will also accelerate the implementation of the free trade zone strategy. Compared with the Asian financial crisis in 1998, it is precisely because of the new policy tool of the free trade area that my country’s ability to respond to the financial crisis has been significantly improved. It can not only promote two-way trade between China and relevant countries, but also reduce trade disputes.
At present, the effects of relevant policies have begun to appear. Since my country raised the export tax rebate rate for some commodities three times in August, November, and December last year, the exports of commodities involved in the policy adjustment in December have reached 54.45 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, accounting for 1% of China’s total export value. It rose from 45.8% in the first 11 months to 49% in December. Exports of clothing, bags, lamps and other products all showed accelerated growth.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, a large number of enterprises in our country have grown up in fierce market competition, have strong international competitiveness, and can adapt well to changes in the international market. Crises can put pressure on companies, prompting them to improve their operations and management, adjust their product mix, and increase their added value. We believe that as the effects of these policies gradually emerge, foreign trade will be able to achieve the goal of stable growth, and companies will be able to achieve new development in response to the crisis. AADFGTEHTRY
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