Not long ago, the Internet speculated that this winter will be a “cold winter” due to the “La Niña” phenomenon. But in fact such speculation is not accurate. There is no correspondence between La Niña and cold winters. Even if there is La Niña in some years, our country does not have strong cold winters. The current climate model of the National Climate Center points out that during the climatically defined winter (December to February 2022), the temperature in most of my country will be close to or slightly higher than the same period of the year, and the temperature in some areas of the central and western regions will be slightly lower than the same period of the year. , looking at it this way, there is no trend of severe coldness throughout the winter.
For the textile and apparel market, temperature changes must be an important factor affecting the textile market. Especially in winter, temperature is crucial to the sales of down jackets. The need to keep out the cold brought about by the low temperature will significantly stimulate consumers’ willingness to buy winter clothing, especially clothing such as down jackets that have strong warmth but are slightly less beautiful. If the temperature is not low, people tend to buy fashionable and beautiful clothing such as coats.
Industry hoarding phenomenon reduced
In the past, the clothing industry would stock up based on winter temperatures, especially when a “cold winter” was expected. But I still remember the impact of the warm winter in 2019. Some manufacturers that mainly focus on autumn and winter fabrics can no longer sell, and clothing companies have stocked several warehouses with unsalable cotton clothes and down jackets…. Because of this painful lesson, winter The number of companies hoarding goods has significantly decreased.
In recent years, under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for clothing has shrunk, and no one in the industry dares to stock up on goods at will. Orders are basically based on the “small batch, multi-batch” ordering model, and only large-volume orders still exist in the foreign trade market. It is approaching the end of September, but the market orders that flooded into printing and dyeing factories in large quantities in previous years have not yet appeared. The most important reason is that the “Double Eleven” e-commerce season is in pre-sale mode. According to the number of online orders, garment factories Just order the quantity you want, so there is no need to stock up in large quantities, and the time to place an order is also postponed.
No more stocking up during the e-commerce season
Although whether the market is good or not is related to the market rules of watching the weather, the actual placing of orders at clothing terminals today has little to do with the weather. Especially during the “Double Eleven” e-commerce season in the domestic market, we will find that almost all online clothing today is pre-sold in advance. First, due to the downturn in clothing, brands have started pre-sales of next season’s clothing early in order to increase sales. Therefore, many down jackets and other winter clothing have begun pre-sale, although there is still one and a half months until Double Eleven. Secondly, under the pressure of high inventory, no brand owner dares to stock up for sale, so pre-sales can effectively avoid inventory problems.
The cold winter is good news for textile people who “depend on the weather” and can boost the purchase of autumn and winter fabrics by clothing companies to a certain extent. But how many orders can the market actually rely on “weather speculation” or how long can it last? The reality is very skinny. More cloth bosses are not optimistic about the next market. The main reason is that the inventory is too high! At present, the gray fabric inventory of weaving enterprises in Shengze area is 35 days, which is indeed lower than the previous period, but still at a high level.
Some professionals revealed that even if the down jackets on the market stop being produced, they will still last 20 years! When will such a high inventory be digested? The high inventory of clothing companies has been transmitted to the weaving market. Since last year, the inventory of weaving manufacturers has been at a high level in recent years. After the cancellation of epidemic orders in the first half of the year, the inventory of weaving factories has become higher and higher. Although it has been rising since June Since the beginning of the month, some goods have been shipped intermittently, but production and sales are still uneven and cannot meet urgent needs.
picture
When the demand for clothing does not really change, the boost from the news can only have a temporary effect, and the effect is minimal. In this peak season, how many real orders can there be due to weather hype? In addition, the “cold winter” forecast has been refuted, and it is obvious that the market will not change drastically due to the weather.
</p
