After entering the “Silver Ten” period, under the baptism of unusually strong cold air, the textile market was shrouded in two “abnormal” breaths. These two breaths came and went, making people feel happy and worried, sad and happy at the same time.
One is the continued surge in raw materials triggered by OPEC+’s unexpected production cuts.
During the National Day holiday, OPEC+’s unexpected production cuts triggered market concerns about tightening supply, which had a strong boosting effect on international crude oil prices, thus achieving the “five consecutive rises” in oil prices. Under the surge in crude oil, polyester yarn was not to be outdone, and the quotations of major varieties continued to rise. As of October 9, some specifications of polyester FDY and POY have increased by 300-400 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. If we are not careful, the already poor life of the weaving company will become even worse.
During the holiday visit, the editor found that a weaving company that mainly specializes in four-way stretch is in intensive production. The person in charge of the company revealed that a recent order for four-way stretch for nylon machine bags had a very tight delivery date, and the customer was pressing for it. I was so anxious that I could only barely rest for 3 days during this National Day holiday. It is understood that this fabric is mainly used to make autumn and winter clothing such as jackets and windbreakers.
Regarding the continuous increase in polyester yarn during the National Day, the company said that “it is difficult for a clever woman to make a meal without rice.” Machines have to run, orders have to be delivered, and no matter how expensive the raw materials are, they can only passively accept it. Forced by the market cycle of “buying up and not buying down”, this wave of price increases is another severe test for the company’s profit margin. If you are not careful, you will fall into the embarrassing situation of “buying raw materials at high prices and selling inventory at low prices.”
According to monitoring data from Silkdu.com, the current weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 70.1%, which is slightly higher than the pre-holiday value (69.3%). The bottleneck of 70% operation rate has been loosened. Looking back at the trend chart, we can find that the last sharp rebound was mainly due to the resumption of production after the end of high-temperature production restrictions, and partly due to the slight improvement in the “Golden Nine” autumn and winter fabric market. Overall, the operating rate of looms is still fluctuating in a range.
It can be seen from the gradual decline in polyester yarn prices in recent days that the increase in polyester yarn during the National Day lacks the support of terminal demand, and the upward trend driven only by the surge in crude oil is difficult to maintain for a long time.
The other is the recovery of terminal demand with the arrival of the “cold wave”.
Along with the “Silver Ten” came two severe drops in temperature. If the drop in temperature during the Golden Week was just an “appetizer” to taste the autumn mood, then the drop in temperature after the holiday is the highlight of “winter comes in one second”. Pounds of hard vegetables.
As the temperature drops sharply, the textile market becomes lively, with various inquiries and orders taking place on social platforms such as Moments and WeChat groups, in a “you sing and I will appear” style.
The person in charge of a fabric company revealed that under the tepid market conditions, market sales channels have changed. Compared with traditional sales models, fast-selling and spot goods can better adapt to market changes. When talking about whether the recent cooling down can bring benefits, the person in charge said that the total order volume this year has remained basically the same as in previous years. The difference is that the order time has become more concentrated. Orders from brand customers began to be placed one after another in June and July, and “small batches, multiple batches” became a new fabric procurement model. As the temperature cools down, online e-commerce platforms are the first to benefit. This is gradually transmitted, and the boosting effect on the fabric end is not yet obvious. After all, the overcapacity in the fabric market cannot be ignored.
Another down jacket fabric company also said that the down jacket market has been showing a wait-and-see trend in the early stage. Customers have become increasingly cautious in placing orders, and offline stocking volume has decreased compared with previous years. On the contrary, the stocking volume on e-commerce platforms has increased compared with previous years. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is a traditional peak season for the textile market, and online sales of down jackets are acceptable. Affected by the strong cold air, some of the customer’s styles “sold like crazy”!
It can be seen from this that the weak demand caused by the downgrade of consumption is gradually disintegrating under this wave of cold air. Backed by a complete logistics network, the e-commerce platform has reaped the “first wave of dividends”. Data from e-commerce platforms show that during the National Day, the sales of autumn clothes and long trousers increased by 125.64% month-on-month, the sales of fleece pants and woolen hats both exceeded 100% month-on-month, and the sales of down jackets increased by more than 140% month-on-month… Such achievements can be achieved in just one week. The sales figures are truly astonishing!
In general, the “Gold, Three and Silver” that were stranded in the first half of the year due to the epidemic may be compensated in this “Silver Ten”. The original worries about the autumn and winter market have been reduced under the “cold wave”.The release of demand for relief, cold protection and warmth has given textile workers a sense of comfort. However, it should be noted that there are many unstable factors hidden in the market, and the later trend still cannot be taken lightly.
</p
