Note that in the past two days, dragged down by factors such as demand concerns and a stronger US dollar, international oil prices plummeted on November 17, with Brent crude oil futures falling below US$90 per barrel. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.62% to close at $81.64 per barrel; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in January 2023 fell 3.32% to close at $81.64 per barrel. Barrel $89.78. On November 18, international oil prices continued to fall. The weekly decline last week was close to 10%.
Crude oil game downstream injured
Under the current market conditions, crude oil prices have temporarily retreated into the background due to geopolitical supply concerns. Market fluctuations are ultimately dominated by demand. As economic challenges become more severe, the demand for crude oil is expected to continue to decline. Therefore, at present, Crude oil prices fell sharply. However, compared with the previous two years, the overall price of oil is still relatively high. On the one hand, the extent of the global economic downturn is still unclear, and the impact of weak demand on crude oil is uncertain. On the other hand, Rosneft reported on December 5 Both price limits and EU bans will be implemented, and the impact on supply is unclear. Therefore, the game between long and short is still going on, and no one can predict the future crude oil market.
This is the fundamental reason why crude oil prices have surged and plummeted at regular intervals this year. The demand for this year has been lower than expected, which has caused the news to have a very obvious impact on crude oil prices. The sudden surges and plummets of crude oil prices have also affected the overall market downstream. , although the market on the fabric side is not very ideal, the polyester side is constantly adjusting prices. In the end, it is the downstream who is injured in the crude oil game.
Polyester price “no one cares about”
The fluctuations in crude oil prices will still affect the hearts of some people. After all, the rise and fall of gasoline are still affected by the price of crude oil. However, the polyester end that is also affected is not so lucky. Now the fabric market has basically entered. At the end, many companies said they would prepare for holidays in mid-December. Firstly, there are not many orders now, so they should go on holiday early and wait for next year’s market; secondly, they also need to make less inventory to keep their inventory at a reasonable level, so for The demand for polyester fabrics in the fabric market is not very urgent.
At this time like in previous years, if the polyester factory has a promotion, many manufacturers will definitely buy silk and stock up to prepare for next year’s production. But now the price of polyester silk changes day by day, and the market conditions are not good. Who knows what will happen if you buy silk at the bottom? It will not be copied halfway up the mountain. Generally speaking, it is purchased once every fifteen days, which is enough. A textile boss responded: “I now tell the salesperson of the raw material factory to call me when there is a sale. Normally, Just don’t look for me.” The downstream enthusiasm for raw materials is not high, which most directly leads to the plummeting production and sales of polyester.
When will the inventory level be high?
The plummeting production and sales have caused many polyester factories to say that they are about to run out of stock. The inventory in the previous month is slowly piling up, and now there is almost one and a half to two months of inventory. According to Silk City.com According to statistical data, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 30-34 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 30-33 days, FDY inventory is around 24-33 days, and DTY inventory is around 29-33 days about. The momentum of high inventory levels seems to be unstoppable.
Therefore, it is rumored that not long ago, polyester leaders also announced a joint production reduction, in order to reduce the current inventory on hand so that the falling prices can be stabilized. However, things are not that easy. Just last week, polyester yarn Prices have fallen by nearly 150 yuan/ton in a week, and DTY prices have dropped by 300 yuan/ton. With the sharp decline in the weaving start-up rate in the fabric market, and as the end of the year approaches, it is extremely difficult for subsequent textile enterprise orders to improve effectively. Although polyester filament prices have some support due to production cuts. However, the demand side is lackluster and under the pressure of inventory, the room for price increase of polyester filament has been restrained.
The market has almost come to an end, and polyester prices are struggling at the tail end of the market, but nothing can come of it. Faced with Double 12 and Christmas next month, only sporadic small orders have been placed, and the terminal market is not expected to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the price of polyester yarn will still fluctuate at a weak level in the short term.
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