Recently, the fourteenth Double Eleven came to an end. According to statistical data, from 20:00 on October 31 to 23:59 on November 11, the cumulative sales of comprehensive e-commerce platforms and live broadcast platforms were 1,115.4 billion yuan. In the clothing industry, the growth rate of second-dimensional ancient style clothing exceeds 800%, and the growth rate of men’s ethnic clothing exceeds 700%.
However, it is worth noting that pre-sales of Tmall’s core clothing bags fell by 42% this year. It can be seen that the overall sales volume of clothing has declined compared with last year, and the demand for clothing is still not good. What’s even more puzzling is that the e-commerce return rate remains high every year, and clothing inventory has become new.
The return rate is high during Double Eleven, and new clothing inventory is added
Xiaoying, born in 1995, bought 15 pieces of clothes from an e-commerce platform during Double 11 this year, spending about 2,000 yuan. After trying on the goods for a round, she finally kept 3 pieces and returned 12 pieces, with a total final cost of about 800 yuan.
During major sales, in addition to people like Xiaoying who return goods in order to try on and choose suitable clothes, there are also many people who return goods partially after making up the order with full discounts, or return goods because the courier is delayed in shipping, and then regret after making impulse purchases. And consumers who return items. Some clothing merchants complained: The daily return rate in their stores is 25%-30%, and it may be 30%-40% during major sales. This year due to the epidemic and weather, the return rate is about 5% higher than in previous years. According to the 2021 Double Eleven data compiled by a data platform, Taobao’s return rate is over 20%, JD’s is about 10%, and live broadcast e-commerce was even as high as 60%.
The main promotion of this year’s Double Eleven is “50 off for purchases over 300”, and such activities often involve a lot of co-orders, that is, refunds are made after receiving the goods, and some are even refunded after placing the order. This results in higher sales figures, but also very high return rates. Moreover, the e-commerce sales of clothing are quite special. Consumers often try them on after receiving the goods. The upper body effect, size, and quality factors all lead to a higher return rate than other categories.
The temperature is not good, and clothing sales lack confidence
The chargebacks from “Double Eleven” may continue to be sold during “Double Twelve”, but they may not be fully digested, and there will still be a high chargeback rate after “Double Twelve”, so the inventory of clothing will definitely decrease. Increase. According to Double Eleven sales, down jackets are the main clothing category. As early as a few years ago, some professionals said that even if the entire clothing industry stopped production, the inventory of down jackets would be enough to digest it for several years. This year, due to the industry shutdown caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year, inventories continued to increase. This year’s clothing inventory has reached a new high.
The sales of down jackets and cotton jackets largely depend on the weather. Although there were predictions in October that this year would be a cold winter, after entering November, the temperature in some areas actually reached 30 degrees. This unpredictable weather really makes textile and garment people sigh. It is said that textile people who produce winter clothing only depend on the weather, but this year’s weather is really disappointing. Even if the “cold winter” arrives as scheduled in the later period, it will be difficult to boost the sales of winter clothing. Therefore, textile people lack confidence in the sale of winter clothing.
In the past two years, due to the influence of warm winters, the sales of down jackets were not ideal. According to research, last year some clothing companies had piled up down jackets and cotton-padded clothes in several warehouses and could not sell them. This also led to clothing companies’ financial constraints, which also affected the downstream down jackets. The demand for fabrics has decreased, and it is even impossible to pay the final payment. What is left to downstream fabric companies are down jackets and cotton jackets to pay off debts. In such an interlocking supply chain, any problem in any link will affect the entire industry. In fact, recently we have been able to see large sales of clothing at the entrance of some stores. Among them are historical inventory and new debt-retiable clothing.
There is still a big gap between the current textile market and last year. Whether in terms of price, profit or orders, they have all dropped by at least 30% compared with last year. At present, many manufacturers still focus on destocking. Currently, many factories have stopped production and are on holiday to destock their warehouses. Although there is a bit of pessimism in terms of production, it may not be a bad thing for future business operations. Only by clearing inventory can we have sufficient funds to operate and put the market on the right track.
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