We have talked about a very contradictory problem that the market is facing now – strong expectations and weak reality! This contradiction has now been truly reflected on the raw material side. The raw material side has gone through a roller coaster in just two or three weeks since the beginning of the new year. From a “good start” to a conservative and stable price and now to a price drop, it is really exciting!
The reason why the price of polyester yarn will be reduced in mid-February still needs to be found from oneself and others: on the one hand, its own load has increased significantly this week, with a load increase of more than 10% in a week. On the other hand, the overall orders at the weaving end are still there. It has not yet been issued and is relatively deserted, so the demand for polyester yarn has not yet appeared. Taken together, the two factors have led to a sharp increase in the inventory of polyester factories.
Polyester factory load rises
In order to avoid the demand gap caused by textile workers’ holidays, polyester factories generally choose to reduce their own operating rates. Therefore, during the holiday period, or even earlier, the load of polyester factories has dropped to a little more than 50%. After the New Year, it will take a certain amount of time to start up the polyester equipment, the absence of workers will add to the temperature of the boiler, and the parameters of the device will need a certain amount of time to be adjusted to ensure stable production of the product. Therefore, within one to two weeks after the holiday, polyester Factory load has not increased significantly.
However, as time enters the third week, after the Lantern Festival, migrant workers generally return to work, and the overall production of polyester factories enters a stable state. Therefore, the polyester load this week has increased significantly by 12%. At present, the overall The polyester load has returned to about 70%, and with the loss of the new year, the load is still expected to fluctuate upward.
Terminal demand is lower than expected
After the Lantern Festival, as workers have basically all arrived at work, the weaving end’s operating rate has also rebounded. However, the recovery of orders after the festival is not as good as expected, and most companies have purchased polyester yarn as inventory before the festival. , on the premise of having inventory, still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, which has led to the delay in the breakthrough of polyester production and sales, and the inventory accumulated by polyester factories during the New Year cannot be processed.
Currently, according to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 18-30 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 20-30 days, FDY inventory is around 18-28 days, and DTY inventory is around 18-30 days. to about 16-29 days. One night we returned to before the liberation, and the inventory returned to a relatively high position. And judging from the current market conditions, polyester inventories will rise next week. After all, the current situation of polyester yarn is very embarrassing. No one will buy it when the price goes up, and no one will buy it when the price goes down.
To sum up, combined with the increase in polyester factory load and lower than expected downstream demand, it will be a super double for polyester inventory! If the price doesn’t fall now, when will it fall?
Gold, three, silver and four are not far away
However, since it is already mid-February and we are a big step closer to the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four”, demand will begin to improve at this point in accordance with the rules of previous years. Next week and the week after will be the time to accept this year’s market. An important node, if the market can make a turnaround! That is definitely the strongest shot in the arm! And although the market has not recovered now, the inventory of gray fabrics on the market has still been digested!
It is expected that polyester filament yarn will still be in a weak and volatile situation in the short term, but in the medium and long term, due to the gradual recovery of the market, it can still provide certain support. It can only be said that this year, it is really too bad. early!
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