On July 31, PTA futures rose sharply and broke through 6000points!
As of the closing on 7month31day15, PTAThe main futures contract closed at 6016 points, an increase of 32 from the previous trading day points, an increase of 0.53%.
At the same time, the spot price of PTA has also reached 5995yuan/Tons, it is infinitely approaching6000 yuan.
PTAWhy did the price suddenly rise? What impact will it have on textile companies?
Crude oil surges
Under the influence of news about production cuts from both Saudi Arabia and Russia, international oil prices experienced a rare sharp rise in July. WTICrude oil7 has risen 14%, is expected to hit the biggest gain since January 2022; Brent oil The cumulative increase in 7months exceeded 12%, and Goldman Sachs predicts that it is expected to rise to 86USD/barrel.
Crude oil is the most basic raw material in the chemical fiber industry chain. Its rise will naturally drive the price of downstream products to continue to grow. As a raw material for PTAPXThe increase is also significant, from 977 US dollars at the beginning of 7 to 7Month311099 US dollars, an increase in a single month It also exceeded 100 dollars. The upstream has given PTA great support for its price.
Polyester yarn production and sales are good
June and July are originally the traditional off-season for the polyester market in summer, but this yearJune, 7The production and sales of polyester filament have performed well in the two months of June until one and a half months ago There have been 5 average production and sales exceeding 100 times within the period, and there have even been explosive market sales with production and sales approaching 400%. The hot sales of polyester yarn have greatly increased the demand for PTA from polyester factories, giving a strong impetus to the price increase of PTA support.
Downstream sales prospects are good
When visiting the market recently, many textile companies reported that there were more inquiries in the market. According to past experience, this is a precursor to orders coming. In previous years, autumn and winter orders would gradually start to arrive in mid-August. This year, due to special reasons, some orders may be brought forward. Therefore, in the short term, market expectations are upward, and forPTA Price plays a promoting role to a certain extent.
PTA has increased, and textile companies are most concerned about two issues. One is whether the price of polyester filament will increase, and the other is whether the price of gray fabrics and fabrics can follow the increase.
Will the price of polyester filament increase?
If we compare the price fluctuations of PTA and polyester filament this year, it can be clearly seen that the price of polyester filament fluctuates between PTA is almost synchronous, but the fluctuation range will be smaller, so in the rising range, the profits of polyester yarns tend to shrink, but in the falling range, the profits of polyester yarns will increase. Of course, many major polyester manufacturers now operate the entire industrial chain. PTA and polyester are all produced by themselves, so it’s hard to say here.
The price of polyester filament has not increased that much, mainly because weaving companies are not accepting it. If they dare to increase prices, they dare to reduce production. This situation will not be alleviated in the short term. Therefore, polyester yarn may be driven up by PTA, but the increase should not be too large.
Can the prices of gray cloth and fabrics follow the rise?
Recently, there has actually been news of an increase in the price of some gray fabrics. The factor that determines the price of gray fabrics is supply and demand. In the short term, there will be a large influx of orders in the market, and the price of gray fabrics is very likely to rise. But we must also see that the operating rate of looms throughout this year is not low, but the foreign trade situation is not good, and the domestic demand performance can only be considered average. A large amount of gray fabrics are backlogged in the circulation link. In the second batch and spot fabrics In supermarkets, these will suppress the price of gray fabrics, and it is difficult for the volume of orders to impact such a large inventory. Therefore, fabrics and gray fabrics may rise, but only a little.
Editor’s note: Compared with the summer of 2018, the current increase of PTA can only be regarded as drizzle, of course not it They don’t want the price to rise, but the price increase downstream cannot accept it. 7The monthly increase in crude oil prices is the most direct reason for the increase in PTA, which has increased by more than 10%, it is unlikely to continue to rise in the short term. The biggest support for price increases has been eased. In the futurePTA wants to rise sharply. Maybe a little difficult.
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