The main contract of PTA futures exceeded 6,000 yuan/ton, polyester filament rose by 350 yuan/ton, and nylon rose by 1,000 yuan/ton.
International oil prices continued to rise last week, boosted by tight supply, peak fuel consumption in the summer in the United States and improved economic prospects in Asia. Affected by this, the chemical fiber industry has continued to explore recently and has reached the forefront.
01International oil prices continue to rise
Since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war, international oil prices have gone from rising to falling, rising again, falling again, and recently rising again, reaching a maximum of 120 US dollars. Changes in oil prices have also driven the price of polyester raw materials to a roller coaster ride. .
Geopolitics has always been the main factor affecting oil prices. Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war or the Iranian nuclear issue negotiations, they will affect the supply and demand of oil, thereby affecting oil prices. With the current high oil prices, oil-producing countries are struggling to count money. Naturally, they do not want oil prices to fall and reduce their own profits. Therefore, once oil prices are too low, oil-producing countries will release news of production cuts to maintain oil prices.
Therefore, the editor judges that the price of crude oil will still fluctuate at a high level in the future. The current price is also historically high, and the polyester yarn produced at this price will not be much cheaper. Therefore, the price of polyester yarn is now high and has remained high for a long time.
02Weaving factory “cuts flesh and returns blood”
After several consecutive years of “severe beatings” starting in 2019, weaving companies no longer dare to stock up on polyester yarns in large quantities. If you ask the person in charge of the company now, most of them will answer that you can use it as you buy it. Generally, the quantity of silk in stock will not exceed one month. If the price is about to increase or there is a big promotion, you may buy next month’s quantity in advance, but the inventory will still not be very high.
In contrast, there is a high inventory of gray fabrics. According to data monitoring from the China Silk City Network, the gray fabric inventory of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is currently about 36.2 days. This does not include the amount of goods stocked by a large number of fabric spot supermarkets and traders on the market. The actual inventory should be more.
However, it is currently the off-season for the industry, and while the weaving load is still acceptable, some machines are in production inventory. As a result, companies are currently using high-priced raw materials to weave inventory, and the cloth boss’s heart is bleeding. However, the actual situation has forced the production of inventory. The market as a whole has high expectations for the “Golden September and Silver Ten” in the second half of the year, and manufacturers are preparing for this.
Raw materials continue to rise, which is also the “last straw” that crushes the company. Entering August, although there are currently signs of slight recovery in foreign orders, they have not really come out of the off-season, and after a long period of global consumption downturn, the pressure of overcapacity in the market cannot be effectively alleviated. For some companies that are not doing well in receiving orders, the rapid rise in raw material costs has undoubtedly increased their financial pressure. Many companies whose inventories are difficult to cash out have not had a high overall operating rate this year, especially under the recent high temperature weather. Many companies in northern Jiangsu have The operating rate of enterprises is only 50%. The reason is that the inventory is too high and the capital chain is tight.
For weaving companies, what they hope is that the market will explode and raw materials will fall. Only in this way can they make profits while having orders. But now it is the off-season, there are insufficient orders, but we have to start work, buy high-priced raw materials, the capital chain is tight, and the pressure is huge. Although there have been reports of rising prices for gray fabrics in the recent market, this is still an isolated case and most manufacturers are still selling goods at low prices. Buying high-priced raw materials to weave inventory, reducing profits and selling inventory, the weaving factory is simply “cutting meat”!
03Market expectations for the second half of the year are optimistic
August is the transitional stage from the end of the off-season to the peak season. When the “Golden Nine” comes and orders improve, the price of gray fabrics produced with high-priced raw materials will inevitably increase. Because of this, some traders have recently begun to stock up, especially in supermarkets. Now is the best stage to stock up. At present, some weaving factories have released news that they are about to increase the price of gray fabrics across the board.
Crude Oil Expectations
Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast for global oil demand this year, believing that the market has shaken off its pessimism about growth prospects and that the global oil market will shift from surplus to shortage. Goldman Sachs analysts have raised this year’s oil demand forecast by about 550,000 barrels per day, estimating that global oil demand will climb to a record high of 102.8 million barrels per day in July this year, and predict that strong demand will lead to 180 million barrels per day in the second half of this year. The gap of 10,000 barrels per day exceeds expectations, and there will be a gap of 600,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The shortage of crude oil is serious. Will oil producers lose the good opportunity to raise prices? Therefore, the editor predicts that international crude oil will run at a high level in the second half of the year, and with the support of the cost side, polyester raw materials will also haveupside potential. The pace of market recovery in August is gradually accelerating, which in turn has a certain impact on the improvement of the chemical fiber industry.
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